Forex news for Asia trading for Monday 9 November 2020
- NZ fin min says the country's small business support scheme extended 3 years
- Oil traders note headline risk this week: Multiple OPEC+ speakers in the days ahead
- Goldman Sachs says US fiscal stimulus most likely in December
- For the politics folks - the competing advice being given to Trump - 1. Fight on or 2. Bow out
- NZD traders - ANZ's NZD/USD medium-term forecast 0.65
- China is beginning to hint at an exit from stimulus
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.6123
- FX option expiries for Monday November 09 at the 10am NY cut
- FT with a report on yuan bulls
- BOJ Summary says need to avoid prematurely ending easy monetary policy
- Japan data - Reuters Tankan shows some improvement but still dour sentiment
- Attack west of Baghdad leaves at least 11 dead
- RBNZ meeting on Wednesday 11 November 2020 - preview
- Coronavirus - artificial vaccine candidate - provokes strong immune response (in mice...)
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 9 November 2020
- EU's Barnier says work continues on EU-UK Brexit trade talks
- Japan press: Bank of Japan closely watching forex market
- RBNZ 'shadow board' sees less need for further stimulus
- China's yuan is opening the week with another jump, to its highest since June of 2018
- US President-elect Biden will appoint a 12-member coronavirus task force on Monday
- EUR/GBP trade recommendation
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 9 November 2020
Weekend
- USD selloff still modest; more to come across the board - MUFG
- US election - AP declares Biden the winner
- China weekend data, exports jumped 11.4% in October & imports +4.7% (USD terms, y/y)
The USD lost a little ground and US equity index futures surged after weekend 'calls' from major media outlets acknowledging Biden's presidential election win. Biden has taken the Electoral College votes in Pennsylvania and other states that were in question to register a solid win. His lead in the popular vote, although this is not of relevance for the College votes, is approaching 5 million. In the end, the election was not all that close.
Equity markets spent the back half of last week jumping higher, registering stunning gains on the week and the performance of futures on Globex in US Sunday evening trade put the sword to any 'sell the fact' expectations.
In the forex space we saw some flows into 'risk' currencies and out of the USD. NZD and AUD had moves to the topside (albeit the ranges were not large) while USD/CAD is 50 or points down on its late Friday level. EUR and GBP are up a little also, GBP outperforming EUR. The only Brexit item we got of (minor) relevance was EU head negotiator Barnier saying 'work continues' on trade talks. Which is good, there is still much to do, with a rapidly-approaching deadline and parliaments to vote on any agreements that may be reached (see bullets above).
There was little on the data agenda in Asia today. We did get Chinese trade data out over the weekend, exports handily beating expectations (see bullets above).
Bitcoin had a wobble over the weekend, trading back under $15,300 but it has since bounced back (towards $15,600) and sits as I update around $15,450.
Back to the US election to wrap up - note that Trump has not yet conceded. Media reports are mixed, some saying he is being urged to acknowledge the loss and move on while others are urging a continued combative approach with mass rallies to protest his grievances.
Offshore yuan gained further:
