Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 6 March 2019
Australia today, RBA then GDP:
- AUD extends its post-GDP losses as RBA rate cuts forecasts pile in
- The calls for RBA rate cuts are getting sooner - here's the latest
- Barclays on the data to watch from Australia (after the hint from RBA head Lowe)
- View on what the Australian GDP means for the RBA. Rate cuts in August and November.
- Responses to the Australian GDP data coming in - 'economy slowed sharply' H2 2018
- Australian Treasurer Frydenberg says GDP showing some moderation
- AMP again looking for 2 RBA rate cuts in 2019
- AUD response to the poor GDP result (and why its worse than it appears)
- Australian Q4 GDP 0.2% q/q (vs. expected 0.3%)
- More from RBA's Lowe: Q3, Q4 GDP likely to be significantly below trend
- RBA's Lowe says difficult to imagine rates will rise in 2019
- RBA Gov. Lowe: probabilities of hike or cut remain reasonably evenly balanced
Other:
- FT writes on flash crash currency moves in early Asia trade
- China state planner says confident country can achieve its growth target in 2019
- BOJ's Harada: Sales tax hike may cause a recession and weaken inflation
- Bank of Japan purchase 480bn yen of JGBs (vs. 430bn last operation)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7053 (vs. yesterday at 6.6998)
- Morgan Stanley says the USD is set to weaken … 'quite a bit'
- Nomura on US-China trade and USD/JPY: Careful now ….
- GBP/USD down in early Tokyo trade. Latest Brexit talks - no agreement
- Brexit talks in Brussels have concluded for today. No agreement. Continue tomorrow.
- Ahead of the ECB meeting this week BlackRock caution on Eurozone downside risks
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 6 March 2019
- Morgan Stanley cuts its Fed rate hike forecast for 2019, now expecting only one
- Private oil data shows than larger expected build in crude oil inventory
The session kicked off here with a speech and then Q&A from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe. As usual, Lowe sounded comfortable. The most notable part of this speech was that the RBA is watching labour market developments to judge the course for policy. Lowe strengthened the Bank's neutral outlook (i.e. that the next move in rates could be up or down) and added he saw it is unlikely rates could move higher in 2019.
The Australian dollar lost a few points on Lowe, to circa 0.7075, but soon stabilised and recovered, popping 0.7090 very briefly ahead of the next cab off the rank, which was the Q4 GDP data. This was pretty awful, coming in under low expectations. Plenty more in the bullets, above. The poor data was followed a number of analysts forecasting RBA rate cuts ahead, again, see bullets above for more. As an aside, there will be more analysts calling for RBA rate cuts in the hours and days ahead.
The Australian dollar lost ground of the data release and consolidated its losses as rate cut forecasts were added. Lows were circa 0.7030 and its not much above that as I post.
NZD/USD lost ground alongside the AUD, following a very similar pattern. AUD/NZD flows not enough to provide too much kiwi support.
Data flow and news elsewhere was sparse. Currencies have lost ground against the US dollar, USD/JPY an exception (down a few points on the day) Cable is off 40 odd points, a big (comparative) loser. EUR/USD losses are much smaller.
USD/JPY down,. AUD/USD down … AUD/JPY a big loser:
Still to come:
