Forex news for Asia trading Monday 4 March 2019
- China foreign min comments on new foreign investment law - to strengthen IP protection
- China says that substantial progress made in trade talks with the US
- China … deleveraging done for now? Analysts says yes.
- China's National People’s Congress begins this week (rubber stamps at the ready)
- Barclays oil forecast, Brent at 70 USD/bbl in 2019
- Forget Doomsday Preppers, the new thing is Brexit Preppers
- New Zealand Monthly Economic Indicators February 2019
- MNI cites PBOC adviser: China growth to be >6% through 2020
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7049 (vs. yesterday at 6.6957)
- BOJ Gov Kuroda says BOJ will debate exit policy at an appropriate time
- Manufacturing PMIs from Asia, February, more falls
- Australia January building approvals 2.5% m/m (expected 1.5%)
- Australia (GDP partials data) Q4 inventories -0.2% q/q (expected 0.3%)
- Detained Huawei executive suing Canadian government - constitutional rights violations
- Australia monthly inflation indicator, headline 0.1% m/m (prior -0.1%) and 1.7% y/y (1.5%)
- Australia - ANZ job ads for February: -0.7% m/m (prior -1.8%)
- Trade recommendation from Barclays, liking TRY/JPY
- Weekend- UK PM May to give run-down towns £1.6bn post-Brexit
- ICYMI: WSJ report 'U.S., China Close In on Trade Deal'
- Australian media: GDP per capita heads for a recession
- Confederation of British Industry private sector growth measure lowest since April 2013
- Weekend: Irish PM says Brexit delay is very likely
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 4 March 2019
- Brexit UK press: UK'S Cox abandons time-limit demand on Irish backstop
- WSJ report 'U.S., China Close In on Trade Deal'
- Weekend: Trump says strong USD and rate hikes are hurting the economy
- Weekend: Trump asked China to 'immediately' remove all tariffs on US agricultural products
- Good morning Monday! Early FX price guide 4 March 2019
Currencies generally opened with a 'gap' higher in early trade against the USD here in Asia early Monday. It was a combination of positive news on a potential trade agreement between the US and China and weekend comments from the US President on the US dollar being too strong.
GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, yen - all gained early. Most of the gaps have since been filled but GBP, CAD, NZD remain the best bid of the lot. AUD/USD has bounced on some China headlines (I'll come back to this).
The data releases of focus for the session were from Australia, and good news was sparse in these. Q4 data on company profits, inventories and worker wages were all disappointing, to the extent that they have analysts poring over GDP forecasts with a view to perhaps lowering them. Its line ball but leaning that way as of now. Tuesday in Australia brings more of the 'partial' data releases for Q4 GDP. Expectations were lowered last week, circa 0.2% q/q now, there ain't much fat in there before the numbers turns negative. Stay tuned (Q4 GDP is due Wednesday Australia time).
The sad data contributed the AUD falling away from its earlier gap highs, but to be fair it was not the only one that pulled back from early highs. As I post we have just had more positive comments out of China on trade talks with the US, which have boosted AUD/USD back toward 0.7100 and it sits under there as I post.
Poor PMIs today from Taiwan and South Korea (see bullets above).
Regional stock markets fared very well on the weekend trade talk news:
- New Zealand benchmark hit its highest ever
- Shanghai Composite (China) hit its highest since June of 2018
- Japan's Nikkie hit a three month high
Shanghai Composite:
Still to come:
