Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Tuesday 31 July 2018
- Japan media report bilateral US / Japan trade talks to happen August 9
- WSJ on Trump to put off a potential shutdown until after midterms
- CAD headlines - Canada press report Canada to be rejected from Nafta talks
- JP Morgan's Dimon: "I don't want to scare the public, but …"
- Australia Building Approvals for June: 6.4% m/m (expected +1.0%)
- Australian Private Sector Credit for June: +0.3 % m/m (vs. expected at +0.3%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8165 (vs. yesterday at 6.8131)
- China July manufacturing PMI: 51.2 (expected 51.3)
- NZ data: Business confidence (July) -44.9 (vs. prior -39.0); Activity Outlook 3.8 (9.4)
- US intelligence agencies indicate North Korea is building new missiles
- Early China PMI data hitting: Non-Manufacturing at 54.0 (expected 54.9)
- Early leak of China PMI data? Composite reported at 53.6 (prior 54.4)
- Japan "former currency chief ": No major change from BOJ today, yen in line with fundamentals
- Japan data: Industrial Production (June preliminary): -2.1% m/m (vs. expected -0.3%)
- North and South Korea to meet to discuss reducing military tensions
- Japan jobs data: Unemployment still low, low, low 2.4% in June (exp 2.3%)
- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence: 119.9 (prior 118.9)
- More UK data, business survey shows confidence little changed
- UK data, GfK consumer confidence for July: -10 (expected -9)
- New Zealand Building Approvals for June: -7.6% m/m (prior +7.1% m/m)
- China press says yuan may move around at a low level in the short term
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday the (BOJ, China PMI) 31st of July
- NY Times: Trump administration considering a unilateral USD100bn tax cut
It was BOJ day today, a day where we normally wait around on tenterhooks, jumping at shadows, until finally the Bank announces that they are doing nothing. But, today we had plenty of activity ahead of the central bank announcement.
CAD was the biggest mover in front of the BOJ. The currency dropped on a report form the Canadian press that Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland has had Canda's bid to take part in senior-level NAFTA talks between the U.S. and Mexico later this week has been 'rejected' by American officials in the office of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Gotta say i find that difficult to believe, but that was the report.
As an interesting aside the news hit and then two hours later it crossed on the Bloomberg news wire. It was when we got the Bloomberg headline hitting that USD/CAD surged 50-odd points.
On the data agenda we had a big load. PMIs from China were the main focus (aside from the BOJ). Non-manufacturing and Composite PMIs hit very early indeed, the numbers leaked around 40 minutes ahead of scheduled release time. They came in much weaker than the previous month. The manufacturing PMI, though, came out as scheduled and only had the smallest possible fall from the previous month (down 0.1 of a point). The impact of the early numbers was a few points lower for the AUD but it soon drifted back to more or less unchanged.
The impact on the AUD was greater from the data that soon followed, building approvals coming in much stronger than was expected (be wary of this though, it is a very volatile data point and is subject to swings). Private sector credit data was out at the same time, but the market focused on the permits data. The credit numbers were not great, a decent drop from the previous month. AUD/USD rose to a session high around 0.7425, retraced most of its gain and then moved back toward the high.
NZD was also the subject of data-induced moves today. Early building permits data showed a large drop on the month 9the caveat of volatility in this data set applies here as well). ANZ's Business survey followed, with Activity Outlook dropping to a 9 year low and Business Confidence to a 10 year low. Dreadful figures indded. NZD has not done too much on the session though, it did swing in a 25-odd point range but is net littel changed.
EUR/USD barely moved on the session. Cable, though, dropped a few points net for the day (not much in it really though)
Ahead of the BOJ USD/JPY had a drift lower to circa 110.95 but regained to above 110.05. A spike to circa 111.20 came in the low-liquidity time leading up to the announcement as markets nervously awaited the decision by withdrawing many of their resting orders (think of leaving your arm dangling in shark-infested water .... not a good idea, right? Although the shark would disagree.).
As I post the BOJ announcement has just been made, USD/JPY has popped to circa 111.35. Dane will pick up the BOJ in the Europe time wrap. Major headlines are here:
Governor Kuroda's press conference is next up, due at 0630GMT
Still to come:
