Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 30 January 2019
- Moody's warn on China - regional, local governments to see higher debt, lower revenue growth
- Moody's on the next US government shutdown - 'could be a more severe impact'
- Iron ore on a tear also - GS raise their forecast
- Japanese markets are going to be closed for a 10 day holiday
- Chinese yuan on a tear, USD/CNY around 6.7160
- The Fed says the FOMC meeting will go ahead as scheduled despite the bad weather
- Australian inflation data and the AUD - analyst responses coming in
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7343 (vs. yesterday at 6.7356)
- AUD higher after Australian CPI data
- Australian Q4 headline CPI: 0.5% q/q (expected 0.4%)
- UK shop prices in January rose the fastest in nearly 6 years (BRC data)
- Japan December retail sales: 0.9% m/m(expected 0.4%)
- Morgan Stanley on 'AUD weakness continues'
- Westpac on the AUD/USD 1 to 3 months out
- Australia: ANZ Roy-Morgan weekly Australian Consumer Confidence 116.5 (prior 115.7)
- Brexit: Irish foreign minister says backstop necessary
- Newswires on comments from former RBA member Edwards: Expects next rate move up but not soon
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 30 January 2019
- French President's office statement: EU-UK Brexit deal, including Irish backstop, not up for renegotiation
- Private oil inventory survey data shows smaller than expected headline build in crude
- The Australian dollar was a mover on the session, but it was not alone.
Ahead of Q4 CPI data the AUD sat just above 0.7150 and then popped toward 0.7180 on the release of the data. Headline CPI came in a little above expected, but the more important core measures were stable under the RBA target zone. Today's was the 12th consecutive quarter of below-target core inflation.
But, the reasoning seems to be if such readings have not budged a comfortable (complacent?) RBA in recent years, why would today's? Indeed, a tick up for the non-core headline will be enough to further their comfort. The RBA meet next week and while yesterdays dreadfully bad business conditions survey heightened the prospects of a cut, today's headline inflation data tipped cold water on that. At least if the Australian dollar response is anything to go by. While its not our role here at Forexlive to lecture central banks, we do nevertheless wonder about missing one of their targets for three years.
The gains were not over for the AUD, as I post its on approach to 0.7200. Iron ore continued to trade to the upside in Asia today, doing the AUD no harm.
CAD and NZD both moved higher against the USD also today.
Cable has moved off its late US lows, up nearly 40 points from those. EUR is up just a few points.USD/CHF and USD/JPY are little net changed for the session after some small swings.
Gold is up a few dollars, hitting an eight-month high.
US-China trade talks resume today, and dont forget its FOMC day also:
Still to come:
