Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Wednesday 28 February 2018
- Dollar feeling the love post-Powell, what does it mean in the bigger picture?
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 28 February 2018
- More UK data ..... British car production was flat in January
- China Feb. PMI data, both manufacturing and services fell & missed estimates - recaps
- More on the earlier China growth rate to 'stay above 6.5 percent' piece
- Attention shifted away from the ECB ... but inflation data today could support the EUR
- A big day for Australian data coming up Thursday - Q4 capex preview
- Heads up for large FX option expiries in coming days (EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY)
- Coming up from the US today - another bucketload of data - previews
- Coming up from Europe today - Euro area February inflation (preliminary)
- Canada fin min says interest rates in CAD are still accommodative
- FX option expiries for Wednesday 28 February 2018 - 10am NY cut
- USD/JPY is lower following this (ICYMI) ... BOJ cuts 25+ year JGB purchases
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.3294 (vs. yesterday at 6.3146)
- BOJ cuts its 25+ year JGB purchases
- China Feb. PMI: Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 55.1)
- China (Feb.) Services PMI: 54.4 (expected 55.0)
- Australia Private Sector Credit data (for January): +0.3% m/m (vs. expected at +0.4%)
- Westpac updates their AUD/USD forecasts - now expect to 0.74 by year’s end (prior 0.72)
- China PMI data (official, February) is due today - preview
- UK data for the Lloyds Business Barometer (February): 33 (prior was 35)
- UK data for BRC shop price index (February): -0.8% (vs. expected -0.6%)
- UK data for GfK Consumer Confidence (February): -10 (vs. expected -10)
- NZ Feb. Business Activity Outlook 20.4 (prior 15.6) & Business Confidence -19.0 (-37.8)
- Japan - January industrial production (preliminary): -6.6% m/m (vs. expected -4.0%)
- Japan - Retail sales data for January -1.8% m/m (expected -0.6%)
- More on NAB's change of call for the RBA (I hike in 2018 vs. call for 2 previously)
- Last day of the month! Barclays comment on month-end flows (spoiler, USD buying)
- BOJ Gov. Kuroda will appear in the Japanese parliament again today, from 0420GMT
- NZ data due today - focus on business activity and confidence - preview
- China press cites a study expecting GDP growth higher than 6.5% in 2018
- Australia has a big data week still to come – some lower tier data today heads up
- German press report on the magnitude of losses for the ECB from a poor 'investment'
- Australian Treas Sec: China economy remains strong, trade flows higher
- US Commerce Dept. confirms tariffs placed on Chinese aluminium foil
- Australia - NAB changes RBA interest rate call - now expects one rate hike in late 2018
- Chinese Eco Min Liu is expected to meet this week with US Treas Sec (and others)
- Japan industrial production data (January, preliminary) due today - preview
- New Zealand - Net Migration for January data out now
- Forexlive Americas FX wrap: Fed Chair Powell makes is debut on Capitol Hill and sends the dollar higher
- OIL - private inventory data reports smaller than expected build in US crude inventory
- Meanwhile, AUD/USD continues its slide
- USD/CAD closes above 200-day moving average for the first time since June
- US major stock indices ending the day at session lows
- Budget: Canada projects C$18.1 billion fiscal deficit in 2018-19
- Oil - heads up for the inventory data due around the bottom of the hour
- Jared Kushner booted from President's daily briefings, loses top security clearance - report
- Economic calendar due from Asia today – Japan and China the focus
Not too much movement in forex (there was some, I'll come to that) but some big losses for local equities today, following the lead from a lower Wall Street overnight. Misses on key Asian data contributed to the share markets declines;
- Japanese industrial production for January was expected to fall, but it was much worse than expected
- China manufacturing and services PMIs were also expected to slip, but again a worse result than expected. This may have a short-term silver lining ... if China's official PMI leads to slipping factory price pressure and also lower nominal growth ... it could also make the deleveraging process more difficult ... and in turn see less pressure for efforts on this front and perhaps a boost to growth. Well, at least that's the 'looking on the bright side' view ... the 'we're all doomed ' view people might disagree.
FX ranges were mostly subdued, but not all. The HKD continued its slide against the USD, to its lowest since August of 2007 today. The last time time it was around here the Hang Seng index fell more than 4,000 points ... another concern for regional equity traders.
USD/JPY (and yen crosses) were also in the more active basket today, a (small) surge in the yen followed the BOJ JGB buying operation, where the bank (tiny) tapered their purchases, reducing buys of 25+ year government bonds. USD/JPY dropped to around 107.20 (from around 107.35) and then a little later to lows circa 107.10. You'll recall earlier in the year a BOJ reduction of purchases in the 10 -25 yrs caused a frenzy of yen buying that went on for week. Not nearly as big a response today.
USD yields on the session are up small.
Still to come
- BOJ will publish the dates of its JGB buying operations for March some time today
- Attention shifted away from the ECB ... but inflation data today could support the EUR
- Coming up from the US today - another bucketload of data - previews
- Coming up from Europe today - Euro area February inflation (preliminary)
- FX option expiries for Wednesday 28 February 2018 - 10am NY cut
And, further out
