Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 20 December 2018
- US Senate has passed a stopgap funding measure to avert shut down
- BOJ leave policy unchanged
- China is said to be assessing a new and substantial tax cut
- Responses to the Australian jobs report coming in - 'solid'
- NZ data - November credit card spending comes in better … and worse
- ANZ change their call on the RBNZ, forecast a rate cut in Nov of 2019
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8936 (vs. yesterday at 6.8869)
- While we await the PBOC yuan rate … ICYMI, the very quiet PBOC rate cut
- Australia jobs report - Employment Change: +37.0K (vs. expected +20.0K)
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 20 December 2018
- NZ November trade balance -861m (expected -880m)
- NZ Q3 GDP +0.3% q/q vs. 0.6% expected
Re the FOMC:
- More from Goldman Sachs on the FOMC - lowering the probability of rate hikes in 2019
- Bank analyst responses to the FOMC continue (lots of revisions to the 2019 path)
- BoA / ML change their call for the 2019 FOMC after today's result
- Goldman Sachs on the FOMC Fed rate hike and new dots - a dovish surprise
Early Asia began as markets were steadying somewhat after the response to the FOMC announcements and Powell's presser.
The first local catalyst was the release of Q3 GDP from New Zealand which came in at a big miss indeed (0.3% q/q against the 0.6% expected). NZD was immediately marked lower, extending its overnight drop another 30 or so points lower. But, that drop was extended further later in the session when ANZ published a call for an RBNZ rate cut (admittedly not until November next year and a further two in 2020). NZD/USD fell under 0.6740 and its down further as I post.
Australian data was next up, the November employment report. It was a huge headline beat for jobs growth, diminished by a higher unemployment rate (participation increased ... to its highest ever on the trend measure) and also by the full time/part time split and continuing underemployment/underutilisation. Australian jobs growth has been impressive, but there is always something to worry about. The Australian dollar edged a few points up, not much at all, and then dropped back not much at all. A small range only for it.
The Bank of Japan December policy decision was next. The Bank, as expected, left policy on hold. USD/JPY did little but has since come off to its session low circa 112.30 from an earlier high around 112.60, net dragging yen crosses down with it.
Elsewhere in FX land, rates are little changed. USD/CAD is a touch higher, back towards its post-FIMC high. Cable is barely changed but on its session high. The BoE is later today.
EUR/USD is barely changed.
Still to come:
