Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 2 August 2017
- If its NFP week that means the ADP report due today will be watched closely
- BOJ member Funo calls for structural reforms to boost inflation
- Aussie June building approvals - analyst responses coming in
- Big data day coming from Australia tomorrow - retail sales & trade balance
- Japanese Prime Minister Abe will reshuffle his Cabinet on Thursday
- BOJ's Funo: Bank of Japan is halfway to 2% price target
- Australia - Building Approvals for June: +10.9% m/m (expected +1% m/m)
- Goldman Sachs on the US labor market ahead of the NFP (& FOMC implications)
- PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.7205 (vs. yesterday at 6.7148)
- Goldman Sachs: "SNB to Find Relief from Weaker CHF"
- More bad news for the BOJ? Japan inflation seen peaking soon
- Japan July monetary base +15.6% y/y (June was +17% y/y)
- Korea press: US may send 2 aircraft carriers to South Korea for drills
- More responses to big NZ jobs report miss coming in
- ASB change RBNZ forecast rate hike to Feb. 2019 (from Nov. 18)
- Goldman Sachs on China - "stable growth into party conference"
- UK GDP forecasts from NIESR: 1.7% for 2017 & 1.9% for 2018
- More UK - CBI quarterly report: export orders up at strongest pace since 2011
- UK data - BRC Shop Price Index -0.4% y/y (prior -0.3% y/y)
- Barclays forecasts for China GDP growth: 6.5% in Q3 & 6.3% in Q4
- NZ Q2 Employment report: Q2 unemployment 4.8% (vs. 4.8% expected)
- EUR/USD - "conditions for a EUR breakout are not yet met"
- Analyst responses to the RBA - implications
- Japan - GDP forecaster says June is down 0.1%
- RBNZ's Spencer speaking - regulatory matters (to review capital ratios)
- Australia data due - Building Approvals - When to expect it and what to expect
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 2 August 2017
- Economic data due from Asia today
- OIL - private inventory data shows surprise build in US crude inventory
- ICYMI - ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: European bond yields drop
The first data item of the data was the NZ Q2 labour market report. The jobs report from New Zealand is a once-a-quarter report, not monthly like most others. Although the unemployment rate improved (fell) on the quarter from Q1 the big miss (and it was big) was in Employment change, which fell 0.2% q/q (a big miss on the expected up 0.7%, and much below the previous which was +1.1%) and came in at +3.1% y/y (expected +4.1%, prior was +5.7%). More at the link.
The data was enough to prompt a near instant reassessment of RBNZ rate hike forecasts (for example, ASB change RBNZ forecast rate hike to Feb. 2019 (from Nov. 2018) )
And a marking lower for the currency, NZD/USD from around 0.7470 just prior to the release to circa 0.7410/20. It has since tracked more or less sideways.
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USD/JPY has ticked a little higher on the session, up 25+ points from late new York trade. News and data flow was limited; monetary base numbers, Cabinet reshuffle announced, a BOJ speaker (see bullets above for more on any of these). As I update USD/JPY and yen crosses are extending a touch higher.
EUR/USD is very little changed within a small range, USD/CHF is a few tics to the better overall while cable has slipped just a few and is a hair under 1.32 as I update.
USD/CAD has ticked up 30 or so points on the session; oil dropped upon release of the private inventory data at 4.30pm NY time which hasn't helped the CAD.
AUD/USD is slightly down on the session; there was little in the way of news flow for it at all today although we did get building approval data (June) showing a big bounce from previous and a big beat on expected (the volatile high-rise apartment sector driving the bounce).
Regional equities:
- Nikkei +0.57%
- Shanghai +0.05%
- HK +0.42%
- ASX -0.45%
