Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 2 April 2019
- Australian dollar losing ground after the RBA statement
- How the RBA Statement changed from March to April
- RBA leaves cash rate on hold, as expected
- Goldman Sachs on the Swiss franc - see no meaningful bounce in EUR/CHF soon
- Goldman Sachs EUR/USD technical analysis (and their level to watch)
- Morgan Stanley on EUR/USD - the level to watch is 1.1280
- EU government are dithering on beginning trade talks with the US
- Australian building approvals humongous surge …. but 'almost certainly a one-off'
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7161 (vs. yesterday at 6.7193)
- Goldman Sachs' global FX head sees a weaker US dollar
- Australia Building Approvals for February: 19.1% m/m (expected -1.8%)
- South Korean official says North Korea could be on the brink of a missile launch
- Brexit: British Chambers of Commerce "sharp slowdown in the real economy across the UK"
- Japan economy minister Motegi says 1st round of trade talks with US scheduled for April
- China press: Not a high chance of rate cuts from the PBOC this year
- More from the BOJ Tankan, inflation survey (target still not in sight)
- South Korea to add more government stimulus to economy in April
- Brexit - UK Sun reports a final round of indicative voting on PM May's deal expected Thursday
- Brexit news from the UK Times - Hammond to tell Cabinet may have to consider referendum
- Australia - ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly consumer sentiment 114.7 (prior 111.8)
- The Brexit 'where to from here' guide (if you guessed MOAR meetings, MOAR votes, correct!)
- RBNZ to cut the cash rate in May and August - updated outlook from ASB
- GBP extending its losses after the UK parliament collapses into incoherence yet again
- Brexit - UK parliament votes to reject everything (again)
- New Zealand business confidence in Q1 -29 (vs. -17 in Q4)
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 2 April 2019
- Gov. Poloz says Bank of Canada is decidedly data dependent on rates
An early mover was GBP, dropping hard as yet again the UK parliament failed to approve any of the votes before it. All four failed to garner a majority although a couple got very close (see bullets above). From just under 1.3120 cable dropped under 1.3035 before it bounced above 1.3080 and is 10 or so below there as I post. The moves were exacerbated by the thin pre-Tokyo liquidity when the news, hit.
After this the focus for today came onto the Reserve Bank of Australia announcement, but I'll come back to that. Ahead of the RBA we had some data from Australia, a huge headline bounce for building approvals in February. The details were, in a nutshell, a surge for high-density approvals. The building approvals data is a volatile set, and within it, the high-density approvals are the culprit - very volatile. The 'behind the headline' view is that the surge is unlikely to last. I would guess that is the correct take. The Australian dollar popped a few points on the headline but soon subsided back towards its session low.
NZD/USD had fallen earlier in the session upon the release of the NZIER business survey for Q1 (moments before the GBP news hit!) which reported a big drop for business confidence. The kiwi was marked below 0.68, and to lows under 0.6780. Its losing ground again as I update alongside an RBA weakened AUD.
USD/JPY traded a small range, not much outside of 111.30/45 for the session here on little news of note (NK news in the headline above, but its only speculation that had been mooted earlier).
EUR/USD lost some ground, testing under 1.12 very briefly a couple of times after a weak US session for it.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate target unchanged, as expected Governor Lowe's accompanying statement to the decision edged a little more sanguine, especially on labour market developments (specifically noting some positives on wages growth). Lowe was restrained but he specifically mentioned 4.9% unemployment. I highlighted he'd be happy with this moments after the jobs data was out a few weeks ago, and indeed he is. The Australian dollar had a wobble either way, clearing out a few positions and as I update its losing ground to fresh session lows under 0.7090.
Still to come:
