Forex news for Asia trading Monday 19 August 2019
- More on China lending reforms - new bank loans to be cheaper from this week
- Nomura on what's propping up AUD, forecasts more RBA cuts, says QE probability now 40%
- AUD spot currently above fair value model mid point
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0365 (vs. Friday at 7.0312)
- China interest rate liberalisation announced- one step closer to free-floating yuan
- EUR/USD range for the week ahead after it "has broken lower against the US dollar"
- Japan July Trade balance: Y -249.6bn (vs. expected Y -194.5bn)
- Here's why the comments from the ECB's Rehn last week were so significant
- Japan - Reuters Tankan report - manufacturing index hits lowest since 2013
- UK data - Rightmove House Prices for August: -1.0% m/m (prior -0.2%)
- New Zealand PPI for Q2 2019: Output PPI 0.5% q/q (prior -0.5%), Input 0.3% q/q (-0.9%)
- China - PBOC to announce new reference rate for bank loans, to lower borrowing costs to firms
- New Zealand data - services PMI for July improves to 54.7, June revised up also
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 19 August 2019
- Weekend Italy: 5-Star Movement says Salvini no longer a credible partner
- China's Global Times reports 'steady economic performance'
- Trump adds: "Tiananmen Square" crackdown in Hong Kong would harm trade deal
- Trump again - I'm not yet ready to make a deal with China
- Trump comments with implications for tariffs on South Korea
- More from Trump - China wants to make a deal, we'll see what happens
- UK Times reports government secret no‑deal Brexit preparations leaked
- White House trade advisor Peter Navarro says there was no yield curve inversion
- Kudlow also with upbeat comments on the economy
- Former China FX official says Trump trade war is "mutual assured destruction"
- German Finance Minister says could deploy up to 50bn EUR of extra spending if needed
- Monday FX rates - foreign exchange prices, early indications - 19 August 2019
- US President Trump tweets 'doing very well' with China
- Event risk playbook for the week beginning August 19
- Video: How a drop in the euro sparks a global rout
- Gibraltar releases Iranian tanker
- Mid-August major central bank overview
Currencies are only little net changed for the session here on Asia Monday to open the week. Despite this we did have significant flow of news.
US President Trump returned from his summer holiday with comments to the media (and his usually slew of tweets). Notably Trump indicated he would be making a decision on Huawei on Monday (US time) and US dealings with the firm. Trump also spoke up the US economy, as did some of his officials in media appearances, Navarro and Kudlow (see bullets above).
Brexit, of course, is never too far from the headlines and over the weekend the Sunday Times revealed it had copies of 'no-deal' planning by the UK government. The Times is tightly gated but from what was made available it does appear the UK population is in for much rationing and perhaps worse if PM Johnson does opt for no-deal exit. As I said in the first line to the wrap, little currency net movement; GBP is little changed on the session after some minor wiggles.
Out of China, the People's Bank of China announced new rules on lending which, in effect, will lower borrowing costs for SMEs. The new regulations come into operation on Wednesday for new loans. This should act as a stimulus measure.
CAD, AUD, NZd are all a few tics lower against the USD while there is little net change for EUR and GBP.
USD/CHF is up a few points while USD/JPY is barley net changed from late Friday level.
Gold is down a touch.
There were huge and peaceful protests in Hong Kong over the weekend, Crowd estimates were 1.5 million people plus.
Still to come:
