Forex news for Asia trading Monday 18 February 2019
- More on the (up to 25%) auto tariff report heading off to Trump's desk for consideration
- Sales of vehicles in China in January -15.8% y/y (prior -13%)
- New Zealand PM Ardern says China values its relationship with NZ
- Financial Times on a new financial indicator (use it before its gets regulated)
- Some comments on US-China trade talks from Asia time zone analysts
- Canadian For Min says important US remove tariffs on steel, aluminium from Canada
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7659 (vs. Friday at 6.7623)
- Australian PM Morrison says a 'state actor' has hacked Australian political parties
- Singapore export data, January: NODX -5.7% m/m (expected +2.6%)
- UK data - Rightmove House Prices for February: 0.7% m/m (prior +0.4%)
- Japan Core Machinery Orders (December) -0.1% m/m (expected -1.1%)
- Australia will fast-track a UK trade deal in event of no-deal Brexit
- FT on when might be a good time to manipulate the market
- Why the big USD/JPY rally the past weeks and where to now (spoiler, back down again)
- Another one bites the dust, part 2. Fed to remain on hold until December
- Another one bites the dust. SG says fed to remain on hold all the way through 2019.
- Reuters on 'France denies it has softened stance on Brexit'
- ECB's Coeure comments on the EUR, ECB monetary policy
- New Zealand January Services PMI comes in at 56.3 from 53.2 previously
- Monday morning Forex prices, early indications
Weekend:
- Rehn: If growth weakens further, ECB has all instruments available
- Before you make a trade ask yourself: Who is on the other side?
- The side-by-side comparison of the US and China statements on trade talks
- A terrifying chart of the staggering amount of delinquent student debt
- Pence says it's time for Europe to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal
Let me begin by highlighting these data points out today (details in the bullets above):
- Japan machine orders fell, leading the Japanese government to cut their assessment of core orders, say they are stalling.
- Singapore exports (NODX) collapsed to their biggest fall in two years in January despite expected front-loading ahead of lunar new year.
- China January vehicle sales down more than 15% y/y following a down 13% the previous month.
- And, President Trump has received the report outlining up to 25% tariffs on autos.
So, some further negative signs for global trade from various sources today. Did 'risk' markets care? No, not really. Regional stocks (China included) traded higher, as I update:
- Nikkei +1.77%
- Shanghai +1.79%
- HK +1.51%
- ASX +0.31%
Currencies? AUD, NZD, EUR, CAD, even GBP are all higher against the USD. Admittedly the moves have not been large. USD/JPY is up only a touch on the session.
GBP traded immediately higher very early here in Asia, jumping above 1.29. Weekend reports in the UK Times indicated the French government had offered concessions on the Irish backstop to end the stalemate over Brexit negotiations. France denied it had but that did not appear to take the wind out of the GBP's sails here.
Still to come:
- Minutes of the February RBA meeting are due Tuesday (0030GMT) - preview
- FOMC minutes to be released this week - preview
Reminder - its a US holiday Monday.
