Forex news for Asia trading Monday 17 February 2020
China/virus
- Japanese press reports Toyota has restarted 2 plants in China
- China's leading property developer to offer 25% off price of housing units
- China January foreign direct investment +4% y/y (in yuan terms)
- PBOC conducts MLF at 3.15% vs. 3.25% previously
- Moody's lower GDP forecasts for China and global economies
- China New home prices for January +0.2% m/m (prior +0.3%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9795 (vs. Friday at 6.9843)
- China official reports total coronavirus cases has reached 70,548
- IMF on coronavirus and the global economy - damage this year; sharp, rapid rebound
- China Securities Journal reports PBOC may conduct an MLF this week at a lower rate
- Woman let off cruise ship in Cambodia tests positive for coronavirus
- China's Hubei province updated coronavirus count, total 58,182 cases
- China to speed approval for imports of medical goods, supports increased imports of agricultural products
- Update - China reports total coronavirus cases has reached 68,500
Weekend:
- China reports 2,641 new coronavirus cases for 13 February
- China's Hubei province has reported 2,420 new coronavirus cases
Other:
- BOJ Governor Kuroda says the virus is the biggest uncertainty for the economy
- Japan data - Industrial Production for December 2019 (final) 1.2% m/m (prelim 1.3%)
- Trump administration is considering halt of jet engines (GE) to in China
- UBS down grade Australian Q1 GDP forecast to negative, expect more RBA dithering
- NZ PM Ardern says forecasts are for virus to hurt economy in H1, rebound in H2
- More Singapore data - exports huge beat in January: NODX +4.6% m/m (expected -4.3%, prior 1.0%)
- Japan govt will swiftly implement emergency steps to counter coronavirus
- NZD traders - BNZ says a NZ recession is possible (but nor probable)
- Singapore's central bank says no change to its monetary policy stance
- Japan stock market opens - pass the barf bag
- Singapore Q4 GDP 1 % y/y (vs expected 0.8 %) - lowers outlook for GDP ahead
- UK data - Rightmove house prices for February % m/m (prior 2.3%)
- Japan GDP, preliminary for Q4 2019: -1.6% q/q (vs -1.0% expected
- Trump on Huawei - "any nation who chooses to use" risks jeopardizing intelligence sharing
- Japan - Reuters Tankan for Feb shows slight improvement
- EUR/USD bounce expected, a rally to sell into
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 17 February 2020
- Brexit trade talks - France's foreign minister warns UK and EU face acrimonious negotiations in coming months
- New Zealand services PMI for January 57.1 (prior 52.1)
- Brexit trade talks - UK to refuse to abide by EU rules on tax and workers' rights
Weekend:
- Do you have the growth mindset as a trader? If not, get one.
- US is increasing the tariff rate on European aircraft from March 18
Japan's economy headed into the turbulence of Q1 202o in poor shape indeed, with Q4 GDP plunging 1.6% q/q, a big miss on already dour expectations of -1.0%). The data is, of course, preliminary so there is a chance the final release will not be so bad, Goldman Sachs giving a heads up that there could be significant revisions to the capex input, for example.
In the data release was the Q4 deflator. This is an inflation measure and it came in higher than expected, so the BOJ at least got perhaps a little encouragement from the release.
Coronavirus developments were again a focus, with indications of business reopenings slowly continuing and various other items (see bullets above) including a rate cut from the People's Bank of China.
USD/JPY did little on the session, barely more than a 10 point range or so.
EUR/USD, USD/CHF and cable were little different, small ranges only. AUD also.
NZD/USD lost a little ground, NZ PM Arden conveyed a message of a weaker economy ahead until a rebound later in the year.
Oil steadied on the day, CAD gained a few tics.
Still to come:
- Forex options expiry for Monday 17 February 2020. 10am NY time cut.
- NZD traders - heads up for the GDT dairy auction coming up Tuesday
- Federal Reserve FOMC January meeting minutes this week - preview
- Key data coming up from Australia later this week - wages and jobs
- Australian jobs data due this week - preview
