Forex news for Asia trading on Thursday 15 July 2021
- There are no Fed speakers on the schedule for Thursday, but a Biden, Merkel news conference is
- China's NBS warns the country still faces external uncertainty, unbalanced recovery
- China Industrial Production 8.3% y/y (expected 7.8%)
- China Q2 GDP 1.3% q/q (expected +1.2%)
- AUD/USD little changed after June employment report (unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%)
- Australia Jobs in June +29.1 K (vs. +30K expected) & Unemployment rate 4.9% (5.1% expected)
- PBOC injects 100bn yuan via a one-year MLF at 2.95%
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4640 (vs. yesterday at 6.4806)
- World Bank expects GDP growth in East Asia + Pacific (excl. China) at 4% in 2021 (& at 7.7% including China)
- Australia survey of consumer inflation expectations, for July: 3.7% (prior 4.4%)
- South Korea's central bank has left its key rate unchanged at 0.5% (as expected)
- Heads up for AUD traders heading into the jobs report, big option expiries Thursday circa 0.7500
- Reports are the US-Iran nuclear talks will not resume until mid-August
- US - senior Democrats considering a tax on imports from nations that lack aggressive climate change policies
- Most Japan firms plan to keep prices stable, some will raise them (few will cut prices) in H2
- ICYMI - The Fed Beige Book sees further price rises in the US
- China financial media water down expectations of further PBOC easing
- Japan broadcaster reports the BOJ is likely to cut its GDP forecast tomorrow
- NZD/USD forecast to rise to 0.7300 (3-month horizon)
- NZ CPI and jobs market data to watch for the RBNZ rate hike - two key dates ahead
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 15 July 2021
- ICYMI - BNZ forecast an August cash rate hike from the RBNZ
The focus was on data flow during the session here today with Australia's June employment report and China's Q2 GDP and June 'activity data'.
It was another strong jobs report from Australia, most notably for the unemployment rate, which dropped under 5% to its lowest since December 2010, coming in at 4.9%. The Reserve Bank of Australia was looking for the rate to drop below 5 sometime in the final quarter of this year, its done so well ahead of their expectation. Of course, a tougher July could well be in the pipeline due to the Sydney lockdown. However Melbourne was in lockdown for (most of) the June survey period and still the report was a good 'un, so bear that in mind as we approach next month's release.
The Australian dollar was little bothered by the data release, its dribbled a little lower more or less without respite since the US markets shut up shop for the day. Down 25 or so points. And, as I post its a little lower still.
NZD/USD is down also, but by a larger number of pips. EUR, GBP, CAD, CHF are all down against the big dollar by varying (small) amounts also. Yen has managed a small gain against the USD.
The China data focus was on the June data rather than the more dated Q2 GDP. Industrial production, retail sales and urban investment all rose a little faster than they did in May, which is welcome news for the Chinese economy that has lost a little momentum in the past few months. Combined with the trade data improvement seen earlier in the week its a bit of encouragement for China trades.
The People's Bank of China injected funds via a one-year Medium Term Lending Facility operation; 100bn yuan at 2.95% (an unchanged rate from the previous operation). This, however, did not nearly offset the 400bn yuan of MLF maturing today.
