Forex news for Asia trading Monday 14 January 2019
- China to double foreign investor quota
- China trade data will prompt even more desire to get a US /China deal done
- Goldman Sachs forecast a higher yen
- Is there any good news in the China trade data?
- AUD and NZD lower as China trade data (full 2018 and December) hits
- China Dec. trade balance CNY 395bn (expected 345bn CNY)
- China's trade surplus with the US in 2018 was the highest on record
- China Customs Bureau says trade growth may slow in 2019
- China full year (2018) trade balance data
- Brexit vote coming up Tuesday - scenario for GBP (and beyond)
- El-Erian's 6 reasons why market pricing disagrees with the Fed's outlook for rates
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at: 6.7560 (vs. yesterday at 6.7909)
- Brexit blamed for demand for Britain’s financial services to shrink, first time in 5 years
- Australia monthly inflation guide (for December): 0.4% m/m (prior 0%)
- USD/JPY to 100? Here's what's driving it there says these analysts
- US economy floating on an ocean of debt
- UK press reports the EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July
- UK PM May says parliament blocking Brexit is more likely than 'no deal'
- UK PM May says failure to back this deal risk a no deal Brexit
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 14 January 2019
- Goldman Sachs expect the yuan to strengthen further
- Weekend news: China to implement measures to maintain stable employment
- Good morning Monday! Early FX price guide
- Japanese markets closed for a holiday today
Weekend:
- What's on the economic calendar in the week ahead?
- What happened in the sterling flash episode (and what to do next time)
- ECB's Nowotny: Our approach to rate hikes will be cautious
- The conspiracy theory behind the latest rally in the Chinese yuan
- FBI investigated whether Trump was secretly working for Russia - report
The big news to open the week came from China's trade figures for December released today. The trade surplus expanded and beat the median estimate for the month but no one looks at the headline, attention immediately turn to export performance, which fel sharply for a huge miss. But the even more damaging story was told by the import numbers, which shrunk for the month for an even bigger miss.
Exports had been outperforming in past months (due in large part to 'front loading' ahead of the US imposition of tariffs) so a slowing in these did not shock anyone (although it was a surprise miss). But the imports data was a shock (I'll come back to this as maybe it wasn't), the collapse further cemented the data showing a slow down in domestic demand in the economy. Yes, we have seen data indicative of a slowing and its been a topic of concern, the shock today was the magnitude of the imports fall.
Analysts will now pore over the detail but currencies didn't wait around for this. The yen found buyers (USD/JPY lower) and the AUD & kiwi found sellers. AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD took sharp hits lower.
(As an aside, a wee piece of education in bias. I did not see ONE question raised about the veracity of Chinese data. That only happens when Chinese data is positive. Bias, much? ;-). OK, back to the wrap).
From Australia earlier we had a private survey of inflation - a monthly gauge. It showed CPI edging up a little. Official data is on January 30 and is not (at this stage) expected to show core inflation within the RBA target band of 2 - 3%.
Currency movement apart from those mentioned:
- EUR/USD is net a little higher on the session, as is USD/CAD and gold.
- Cable is little changed. There were plenty of the usual weekend Brexit headlines.
One thing TRY traders might like to note is the threatening tweet from US President Trump, to devastate the Turkish economy …
Still to come:
