Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 13 November 2019
All of the big New Zealand banks were expecting an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today, but it wasn't to be:
I've collated the rest of the RBNZ/NZD related posts here in the one place, read from the bottom up for chronology of the posts:
- Further responses to the RBNZ interest rate decision today
- Responses to the RBNZ announcement continue - BNZ expect no further interest rate cuts from the Bank
- Further responses to the RBNZ announcement - ANZ forecast more interest rate cuts ahead
- Responses to the RBNZ announcement coming in
- More from RBNZ Gov Orr - monetary policy is effective, see impacts coming through
- RBNZ Gov. Orr: On hold decision was unanimous
- RBNZ leave cash rate on hold - summary of statement
- NZD jumps on the 'on hold' RBNZ interest rate decision
Messages from the RBNZ were mixed, with some dovish comments mingled with some more neutral comments (to say they were hawkish would be a stretch). The RBNZ remains optimistic, perhaps a little too much according to many of the analysts in the posts above - apart from BNZ the others are forecasting further cuts from the bank ahead. Anything further from the Bank will come at the earliest in February 2020, the next policy meeting is Feb 12.
The NZD/USD gained nearly a cent on the announcement, jammed higher on a market caught short expecting a rate cut. The retrace has, so far, been shallow only.
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And so to elsewhere:
- Here's another forecast for an RBA rate cut in February 2020
- NAB changes their RBA next rate cut forecast to February from December
- UBS Wealth Management report high-net-worth investors preparing for a (equity) market drop
- ANZ on what could drive AUD/USD to 0.65 next year
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0026 (vs. yesterday at 6.9988)
- BOJ head Kuroda warns on loss of trust on Japan finances and what that'd mean for government funding
- WSJ report tariffs still a major hurdle in US & China reaching a trade deal
- Australia Wage Price Index for Q3 2019: 0.5% q/q (expected 0.5%)
- Japan - PPI for October: +1.1% m/m (expected +1.2%) % -0.4% y/y (expected -0.3%)
- Australia - Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for November: +4.5% m/m (prior -5.5%)
- More from Fed's Kashkari - more comfortable now the yield curve is not inverted
- Fed's Kashkari says he is a little more optimistic on the US economy
- China's Global Times on trade talks with the US - says there "isn't a quick fix for this prolonged conflict"
- ICYMI - Fed's Harker did not support the October FOMC rate cut
- Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil to speak on Brexit, Wednesday
- NZ food prices for October: -0.3% m/m (prior 0.0%)
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 13 November 2019
AUD-relevant data today were wage-growth numbers for Q3 2019. Wage gains are there, but they are slow (see bullets above). AUD was weighed on more by a Wall Street Journal report that tariffs remain a substantial hurdle in US-China trade talk progress. AUD/JPY slid as this article was published. AUD was soon popped higher with the NZD to confound AUD shorts only to fall back to nearly its session lows as it sunk (no pun intended) in that the RBA cash rate remains below that of the RBNZ.
USD/JPY has straddled 109, down to briefly under 108.90 and back to circa 109.07. The lows were on that WSJ piece I referred to above.
Gold edged a few US dollars to the better. USD/CHF has lost a few more tics, while USD/CAD has gained a few.
GBP/USD and EUR/USD ... I thnk Greg might have accidentally kicked the plug out of the wall for these two on his way out the door - barely changed on the session here.
Still to come:
