Forex news for Asia trading Monday 13 January 2020
Japanese markets were closed today for a holiday.
- Forecasts for China GDP due this week (spoiler, full year 2019 at 6.1%)
- Bundesbank official says euro zone GDP growth expected at 1.1% in 2020
- China's state planner vice chair says GDP target achieved for 2019 despite downward pressure
- China's Global Times is bullish on the phase one trade deal with the US
- The US and China are restarting their Comprehensive Economic Dialogue semi-annual talks
- In China? Like to work for Goldman Sachs? Polish up that resume!
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9263 (vs. yesterday at 6.9351)
- FX option expiries for Monday January 13 at the 10am NY cut
- US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin wants China to completely stop buying oil from Iran (or else)
- The only woman from Iran to win an Olympic medal has defected from the country
- Australian monthly inflation data 1.4% y/y (prior 1.5%)
- US President Trump says again to Iran - “don’t kill your protesters”
- 65 cent AUD/USD forecast due to slack consumer, potential for RBA QE
- JP Morgan on the yen - narrow ranges to persist
- Meanwhile, in Canada - False alert of major nuclear power plant incident sent to millions of residents
- US officials to visit London to urge ban on Huawei 5G
- US has reached out to North Korea - Trump tells Kim Jong-un he wants to resume talks
- Weekend Brexit news: Ireland's deputy PM says EU 'won't be rushed' on trade deal
- Weekend Brexit news - Croatia’s PM threatens to block London access to EU markets
- Philippines stock exchange will be closed today due to a volcano erupting
- Weekend ICYMI - Bank of England policy maker tips the scales towards an imminent rate cut (maybe)
- More on Mnuchin's comments - Phase 1 trade deal with China was not changed in translation
- Weekend Taiwan election - A big win for Beijing-skeptic party
- Weekend: PBOC dep gov says China must promote pension investment to bolster capital market
- Monday morning early levels - indicative forex prices - 13 January 2020
- Four reported wounded in a rocket attack on base in Iraq
- Merkel, Johnson condemn Iran's arrest of UK ambassador
- US Treas Sec Mnuchin comments on China, Iran and his US GDP outlook
- Bank of England MPC member Vlieghe says he is ready to cut interest rates if data does not improve
- US to Iraq: Kick out our military and we will seize your central bank accounts
- What were the financial lessons of the 2010s?
- Iran admits it accidentally shot down Ukrainian airliner
Yen crosses mostly traded higher on the day. This week we get the signing of 'phase 1' of the US-China trade deal and that is likely to act as a positive for risk in the lead up (signing is due Wednesday in Washington). USD/JPY traded a little higher on the session here but so far has not troubled its Friday high. Combined with CAD, AUD, EUR, NZD all moving up (small ranges only) against the USD, consolidating their post-NFP gains, has meant yen crosses the movers for the session here.
Ah, but GBP was not so cheerful, it fell (a bit of a gap) at the opening on news over the weekend indicating the Bank of England monetary policy committee is swinging more dovish and a rate cut is becoming more likely (if the three members of the MPC who have made dovish cooing in past days vote for a cut they'd move the vote to 5-4 in favour). More in the bullets above.
Cable has barely retraced its opening losses since as I update.
Away from the majors the offshore yuan strengthed again today, adding to its recent gains while the South Korean won traded to its highest against the US dollar since the beginning of July last year.
