Forex news for Asia trading Monday 12 June 2017
- Some weekend news of fake economic data out of a Chinese province
- Plenty of data from China due this week - financing, industrial production & more
- Recap of Japan data - capex "will likely remain lacklustre in the current quarter"
- Its FOMC week - preview from BoA/ML (spoiler, expect a hike!)
- People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.7948 (vs. Friday at 6.7971)
- 3 takeaways on French parliamentary election’s first round
- NZIER cuts its 2016/17 NZ economic growth forecast
- Its FOMC week - preview from Goldman Sachs (spoiler, expect a hike!)
- China Commerce ministry to “substantially” cut restrictions on foreign access to markets
- Japan - PPI for May: 0.0% m/m (vs. expected 0.1%)
- Japan - Machine Orders for April: -3.1% m/m (vs. expected 0.5%)
- Italy local elections on Sunday: 5-Star Movement setbacks
- UK card spending data (Visa); consumer spending falls for first time in around 4 years
- NZ data - Card spending, Retail (May) -0.4% m/m (expected 0.2%)
- North Korea press says country is "not too far away" from test-firing an ICBM
- Weekend OIL - Russia's Novak says no need to review oil output cut deal
- Fitch, Moody's and S&P all issued statements on the risks from the UK election
- ANZ on the Australian dollar - forecasts
- ANZ's "significant policy challenge for the RBA" ... on hold but all risks to the downside
- Japan press: Abenomics enters fifth year without clear results
- Key economic releases this week
- OIL - Qatar's energy minister: Country remains committed to oil output cut deal
- French election (round 1) update - Macron expected to get big majority
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 12 June 2017
- Economic data due from Asia today (& early forex rates update)
- Monday morning FX - 12 June 2017 - foreign exchange prices, early indications
Weekend
- Sterling to drop further after UK elections - Credit Agricole
- France goes to vote in another crucial election
- UK political landscape still very far from clear
- Move over UK, it's French election time now
- Davis stays on as UK Brexit Secretary
- Merkel says EU is ready to begin Brexit talks
- China - Goldman Sachs on the changes to yuan fixings - still set to decline
ICYMI:
GBP the mover again in Asia today, but not nearly to the same extent (not even close) that we saw on Friday during the election counting (i.e. Thursday night UK time). From lows circa 1.2705/10 in the early morning cable gained back to around late NY Fridy levels before popping in the late Tokyo morning and hitting highs just shy of 1.2770. GBP gained a little net on crosses also, with other currencies sitting in mostly subdued ranges for the session.
EUR/USD has traded a little higher, to above 1.1210, and its just under there as I write. USD/CHF is flatter, in a narrow range around 0.9685 for the day here.
USD/JPY edged above 110.40 in early trade and has since given a little back toward 110.15. Data for inflation at the producer level (May) was flat on the month but above 2% for the y/y, which may argue for higher CPI to come and thus a yen positive (to the extent it may take some easing pressure off the BOJ) but very poor machine order data also out today would seem to counteract that. Perhaps the very tight USD/JPY range is an indicator the market shares the 'on the one hand, but on the other' take on the data today.
Australian markets were closed for a holiday today, but FX can trade anywhere so we did see some (admittedly very little) activity on the AUD; a tight range only. NZD/USD did little better, a tight range there also. USD/CAD slipped a few points, down from 1.3460+ highs toward 1.3440.
A subdued beginning here in Asia to US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee week, see the bullets above for a couple of FOMC previews.
Regional equities:
- Nikkei -0.50%
- Shanghai -0.45%
- HK -1.17%
Still to come:
0830GMT - Speech by Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia at the Global FX Code of Conduct Launch in Hong Kong
More:
Macron's election landslide (nice percentages, but translate it into seats and Ms win is huge):
- 3 takeaways on French parliamentary election's first round