Forex news for Asia trading for Tuesday 10 November 2020
- Japan LDP official flags need for 15tln yen spending over next 5 years on infrastructure, disaster relief
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting November 11 - preview
- China COVID-19 vaccine trial halted because of a death, unrelated to vaccine
- US coronavirus hospitalisation number the highest since July 10
- Incoming headlines watch: On Tuesday Trump has no events scheduled, Biden to speak at 2pm ET
- China COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Halted in Brazil After Serious Adverse Event
- Eli Lilly’s Covid-19 Antibody drug FDA EUA should reduce hospitalisations
- China inflation figures for October: CPI 0.5% y/y (expected 0.8%) PPI -2.1% y/y (expected -1.9%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.5897 (vs. yesterday at 6.6123)
- FX option expiries for Tuesday November 10 at the 10am NY cut
- Australian PM Morrison says confidence in Australia's economy is returning
- President-elect Biden's team now threatening legal action on election
- Australia October business confidence 5 (prior -4) and business conditions 1 (prior 0)
- Japan economy minister Nishimura confirms drawing up a further economic package
- UK retail sales indicator up in October, while a separate consumer spending indicator is down
- Citi says COVID-19 vaccine news trumps fiscal, monetary policy to support stocks
- JP Morgan forecast S&P500 to 4000 in early 2021 and higher still after that
- Bloomberg Barclays index of US junk bond yields has fallen to a record low 4.56%
- Eli Lilly COVID-19 antibody granted approval for emergency use
- Trump is trying to block Pennsylvania from certifying the election result
- Brexit - UK PM Johnson has lost vote on Internal Market Bill in House of Lords
- Fauci says a COVID-19 vaccine is "right around the corner"
- Fed's Mester says there is more the Fed can do to provide further monetary policy easing
- Australia weekly consumer confidence rises to net optimistic for the first time since the pandemic began
- Fed's Kaplan says the Federal Reserve could need to keep rates at zero for another couple of years
- Fed's Kaplan says hospitals could be overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases
- New Zealand - Card Spending for October - Total card spending +7.5% m/m (prior % m/m)
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 10 November 2020
- NZ government minister says COVID-19 delivery could be as early as Q1 2021
- Federal Reserve says assets may have a large decline if coronavirus is not contained
- New Zealand ANZ Truckometer for October: Heavy Traffic index -3.0% m/m (prior +4.1% m/m)
USD/JPY was a notable mover in the Asian morning dropping more than 60 points from its Monday US-time high. Compared to its Monday rally of over 2 big figures the drop is not impressive but nevertheless, for Asia this is a decent move. US equity index futures dropped away during the session also here.
Its tempting to attribute the move to 'risk off' (falling equities, rising yen) but currencies largely held their own against the USD; EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD not really falling away.
On the coronavirus vaccine front it was a little mixed. An Eli Lilly treatment (not a vaccine) received Emergency Use Approval from the US Food and Drug Administration, but on the other hand the trial of the Chinese vaccine candidate from Sinovac was halted in Brazil due to a death. Note that the testing laboratory in Brazil said the death was unrelated to the vaccine so its not entirely clear what has played out in this situation. We await further details.
On the data front the items of note:
- Inflation in China (October) came in lower than expected at both consumer and producer levels (deflation for PPI continues).
- In Australia the latest business survey (National Australia Bank survey) showed improvement for both business confidence and conditions. The improvement did not show up in AUD, its not a lot changed on the session.
The People's Bank of China cranked up the value of the onshore yuan again today at the mid-rate setting, setting the CNY at its highest since June of 2018.
