Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Friday 1 June 2018
- China private survey manufacturing PMI: 51.1 (vs. 51.2 expected)
- BOJ Gov Kuroda: Fed normalising policy as inflation converging toward its price target
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.4078
- US President Trump says the US will agree to a fair NAFTA deal or no deal at all
- German finance minister Scholz says US tariff moves break international law
- Japan Nikkei / Markit Manufacturing PMI for May, final: 52.8 (flash was 52.5)
- Australia CoreLogic house price index (May): -0.2 % m/m (prior -0.3%)
- Japan Q1 Capital Spending: +3.4% y/y (vs. expected +3.1%)
- French President Macron tells US President Trump that US tariffs are illegal
- Fed's Bullard says trade issues are creating more uncertainty in the economy
- Australia CBA Manufacturing PMI for May: 53.2 (prev. was 55.5)
- New Zealand terms of trade for the first quarter of 2018: -1.9% q/q (exp -2.0% q/q)
- UK press reports on more potential UK govmt. wind backs on Brexit
- Australia AiG Manufacturing PMI for May: 57.5 (prior 58.3)
- NZ data - May consumer confidence +0.4% m/m
- North Korea - Kim met with Russian foreign min, to hold a summit
- Trade ideas thread - Friday June 1 2018
USD/JPY rose today. It had edged towards its overnight high during the Tokyo morning and then popped above 109 as the BOJ reduced its purchases of JGBs at today's scheduled QE operation:
- BOJ cuts its purchases of JGBs
- MUFJ MS says the reduction in JGB purchases by the BOJ is not a policy change
- Yen response to reduced BOJ JGB buys may smooth the way for further cuts
You may recall in the past (quite a while ago now ... mid last year?) that when the BOJ reduced JGB buys the market perceived this to be change in policy from the Bank (a move toward exiting its extremely accommodative monetary policy). Well, that projection has well and truly passed.
Later we also got some positive developments on the Korean peninsula which gave another leg to the higher USD/JPY, this time above 109.20 (as I update):
As I post the USD is gaining strength against other currencies also. EUR/USD slipping just a little, as is cable, higher for USD/CHF.
AUD and NZD are weaker; AUD/USD is under its overnight low. We got an announcement of a hike coming in the minimum wage in Australia today, but the hike will barely keep wage growth bumbling along at slow levels. Slow wage growth is a concern for the RBA, they keep projecting it'll move higher more quickly but are slapped by reality each time:
Prospects for higher rates from the RBA seem further away as days pass, TD the latest bank today to abandon its call for a 2018 rate hike (November), pushing their expectation out to 2019 (May) now.
Heads up for AUD traders though - we get GDP data next week:
- Analyst expectations centring on a solid 0.8% q/q Q1 GDP growth rate
- 2.7%y/y
Still to come:
While EU rules means the union will wait at least 30 days before they can make any counter-moves on U.S. steel & aluminum tariffs (or at least can take effect) no such rules are active under NAFTA ... Canada and Mexico can start to retaliate whenever they like … keep an eye on this Friday and over the weekend
US jobs report:
- Goldman Sachs preview of the nonfarm payroll data due today
- Preview of the nonfarm payroll data on Friday 1 June 2018
- Its Friday NFP day - preview of May nonfarm payroll report
And:
