Forex news for Asia trading Monday 1 July 2019
- Morgan Stanley say they expect a stronger stand on easing from the Bank of Japan during Q3
- Japan tightens exports of tech products to South Korea - SK says will firmly respond
- Iran comments on OPEC - some members have taken a hostile path with out country
- BIS (central bank for central banks) dives into cryptocurrency
- New Zealand Monthly Economic Indicators June 2019 - downside risk to growth
- China June Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (vs. 50.1 expected and 50.2 prior)
- RBA monetary policy decision due July 2 2019 - preview (most expect a rate cut)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8716 (vs. Friday at 6.8747 )
- FX option expiries Monday 1 July 2019 at 10am New York cut time.
- Data from South Korea very soft indeed, PMI falls to 4 month low
- Japan (final) Manufacturing PMI for June hits a 3 month low
- Weekend ECB comments - Mersch says risks to the euro area’s growth outlook skewed to the downside
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Tankan report for Q2 2019. Manufacturing worse than expected.
- Brexit - UK BCC survey - Factories weakest export orders in four years
- CBA/Markit Australian Manufacturing PMI for June: 52.0 (prior 51.0)
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (June): 49.4 (prior 52.7)
- China press response to trade truce: "Mexico, China can be partners against US pressure"
- Iraq's oil minister says under $70 a barrel is too low
- USD/JPY higher after weekend news - but expect the gap to fill by the end of Monday
- US President Trump met with North Korean dictator Kim on Sunday
- RBNZ's Bascand says scope exists for further easing in LVRs if risks decline
- WSJ report - US-China Trade Talks Are Back on, but Obstacles Remain
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 1 July 2019
- Weekend oil news - Russia & Saudi Arabia agree to extend OPEC+ oil output curbs
- Monday opening FX rates - foreign exchange prices, early indications 1 July 2019
- China PMIs for June: Manufacturing 49.4 (vs. 49.5 expected) & Services 54.2 (54.2 expected)
- June forex seasonal scorecard: The top themes all worked
- Trump relents on tariffs, Huawei as US-China trade talks set for a revival
- Trump - Xi meeting: US agreed to no new tariffs on China goods
The big news, though not wholly unexpected, was out of the G20 this weekend - Chinese President Xi and US counterpart Trump agreed to a truce in the trade war. Trump will hold off extra tariffs 'for now' while talks proceed after the six-week hiatus we have had. More in the bullets:
- Trump - Xi meeting: US agreed to no new tariffs on China goods
- Trump relents on tariffs, Huawei as US-China trade talks set for a revival
This is not a trade agreement but markets took heart anyway. Stocks traded up and yen traded lower.
USD/JPY 'gapped' above 108 and carried on through to highs just over 108.50 before simmering down a little with a pullback towards 108.10.
"Risk' was a beneficiary, with moves higher for AUD and NZD (BRB on these ... the rally didn't last) and global equities (and others). Gold gapped down to under $1,400 and remains heavy.
AUD/USD traded above 0.7030 on the better mood early but soon gave back ground as reality bit. Manufacturing PMIs out of major Asian economies were very weak. Over the weekend the official China PMIs:
Today, private survey PMIS from:
- China June Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (vs. 50.1 expected and 50.2 prior)
- Japan (final) Manufacturing PMI for June hits a 3 month low
- South Korea - Data very soft indeed, PMI falls to 4 month low
were very sobering indeed.
AUD/USD dropped 40-odd points from its session high, kiwi dropped circa 25 points. EUR/USD is lower also while USD/CAD traded back towards 1.3100. (ps its a holiday in Canada today, which will thin CAD trade somewhat). Cable is not much net changed on the session whole USD/CHF is higher.
