What a morning. The three-times-revised ISM data knocked the market down, then up, then sideways this morning and probably cost retailers quite a bit of money. I have half a mind to write them a strongly worded letter! But, hey, at least the Markit manufacturing data (56.4 vs 56.2 prior) only had to be released once!
Ryan’s headline for the ISM debacle captures perfectly the mood of the market this morning after we finally got the actual ISM data (55.4 vs 55.5 expected): “You’ve got be kidding me?”
Here’s what you missed:
We took some time to look at metals:
- Gold has caught a bug
- And the obligatory gold update
- Silver: the other metal
A suite of ECB related trade ideas:
More European market news:
- ECB to head up global FX code of conduct revamp
- ECB’s Linde says Euro strength is damaging
- Employment in Ireland steadily rising
- EU’s Barroso says growth has returned to Europe
Miscellaneous news:
- China continues to mess with Google
- Canadian RBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 52.9 prior
- Saudi succession worries spell potential trouble for oil traders
- AUD/USD completed a head and shoulders on the 1hr chart
- Protect your opinions, they are fragile
- French President Francois Hollande is under pressure to defend BNP Paribas from US criminal charges
- Nomura plots the waking of GPIF, Japan’s real Godzilla
- Are the US 20-year bond’s stretched up 10% on the year?
- Upcoming Asia-Pacific data
Despite a lack of solid and sustained moves today (save the USD/JPY’s 40-pip-pop), there is a wealth of opportunity setting up. If today is any indication the day’s leading up to the ECB will be full of jockeying. Not that there isn’t a wealth of actionable data ahead of time – there is. Tonight’s Asia-Pacific data (link above) is meaningful especially for the Aussie’s pairs. However, the market seems to have a bit of tunnel vision and everything not related to the ECB meeting is merely a bump to be dealt with without taking our eyes of the June 5 prize. It’s a bit ridiculous, but important to consider, especially for those of you working the shorter time frames.
The bond market continues to mystify. The 20-year bond’s are up over 10% YTD and that’s after giving back about 1% today. The chart we explored earlier showed a textbook up-trend, but we are reaching a point where it seems stretched.
At least for a couple hours tonight’s data should provide some fireworks, so trade carefully everyone! I believe Adam is back tomorrow. Have a good one, ladies and gents!
