Forex news for US trading 3 April 2015
- March US nonfarm payrolls results 126K vs 245K expected
- US average hourly earnings 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate. YoY 2.1% vs 2.0% estimate
- Is the problem weather or the strong dollar?
- US stock futures fall after non-farm payrolls
- Infograph: Trends in US employment. Showing a slowing of the trend.
- US stock futures close on the lows in abbreviated session
- Three spots to watch for stops in a thin holiday market
- Seven economists reactions to nonfarm payrolls
- Commitment of traders report (March 31, 2015)
- Reactions to the nonfarm payroll report on Friday - CIBC
Technical analysis views:
- Forex technical analysis: AUDNZD continues trend lower. Parity eyed
- Forex technical analysis: USDCHF falls below 100 day MA and Nov/Dec lows
- Forex technical analysis: USDCAD has a lot of stuff on its plate
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD remains within the boundaries
- Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD tests 100 day MA and backs off
- Forex technical analysis: Looking for the EURGBP move higher
With all of Europe off in observance of Good Friday, the US released a disappointing employment report. The number of new jobs created was 126K vs 245K estimate. The two- month revision made it worse by falling -69K. The Unemployment rate remained steady, thanks to a dip in the participation rate. Average hourly earnings did move up by 0.3% which was better than estimate, but you kinda wanta see that move up on a stronger report.
Temporary blip, weather, March is always off (don't they seasonally adjust the data?), one month does not make a trend. All the buzz words are being pushed around.
However, the Fed in their last statement said:
"In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation."
Did that "progress" take a hit with the March employment? Yes.
Nevertheless, with shoots of the spring breaking through, will the "other data" - that which did not jive with the employment reports until the adjustment today - start to show it's expected improvement after the harsh winter? That is what April trading will be about.
PS. Commitment of traders from March 31: EUR shorts at 227K vs. 221K shorts prior week. This is most bearish on record going back to 1999 (see:Commitment of traders report (March 31, 2015))
