Wage data disappoints.
As George Osborne presents his final budget before the next general election in May, the market trading in the GBPUSD has been influenced greatly by the weaker wage data. The lower growth has the estimates for the next rate hike being pushed into Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015 and that is weighing on the GBPUSD - especially as the Fed debates whether to consider the next step toward a tightening.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the correction off the initial fall was modest, and the pair has taken another step lower in the early NY trading hours. The 38.2% of the sharp move lower comes in at 1.46854. This is also near the corrective high on the initial fall (see chart above). If the price is to entertain a move higher from here, that level will need to be broken (followed by the 1.4700 level).
The 4 hour chart below shows, the pair falling below a lower trend line (at 1.4667 now). Stay below and the bears remain in control (this is the closest resistance ahead of the 1.4685 on the 5 minute chart). The next target on the downside does not come in until the 1.4540 area off this chart.
The GBPUSD continues to probe for the bottom. With the price trading at low levels going back to 2010, there is not that much in the way of support. Traders will therefore likely look for the reasons that show buyers are taking back control. From a technical perspective, does not come until the price can get and stay above levels like 1.4667 and 1.4685 at a minimum. Until then, the sellers remain in control from a technical perspective.
