Forex news for March 20, 2015
North America releases and fundamental events:
- February 2015 Canadian CPI 1.0% vs 1.0% exp y/y
- Canadian retail sales Jan mm -1.7% vs -0.8% exp
- US Treasury Sec Jack Lew says strong dollar is good and reflects the economy
- Fed's Lockhart says money market funds can be source of instability
- Oil rebounds on Iran taking a break and DXY looking at its first weekly loss in five
- Ex Fed Fisher says US stocks are vulnerable to a significant correction
- Fed's Evans: Fed should err on side of less tightenings
- Feds Lockhart says June, July, September meetings all in play for liftoff
- FTSE cracks 7k while the pound keeps trucking
- Baker Hughes rig count 1069 vs 1125 prior
- Federal Reserve Evans: Still too much slack in US economy, but it's shrinking
- Commitment of traders report for the week ending March 17, 2015
- The dollar is the weakest currency in the current week
- How did the global stock markets perform this week? A graphical look at the major stock indices.
A look at some technical analysis
- Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moves above 100 bar MA on 4 hour chart
- Forex technical analysis: USDJPY trades at new session lows
- Forex technical analysis: Taking a step back from the fray
- Forex technical analysis: USDCAD ignores weak data. Follows the USD.
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD has no problem getting to and through 200 hour MA
There was no economic releases in the US today. The data was out of Canada and it was not too great. CPI came in near expectations but retail sales for January were horrible. The headline was expected to show a -0.8% while ex auto, was expected to fall -0.5%. The actual numbers came out a -1.7% and -1.8%. respectively. Certainly the CAD got hit? Not today, because as soon as NY traders entered, the sell off in the dollar was on.
The EURUSD trended higher, with little in the way of corrections along the way, until the last 3 or so hours. In the process, the pair was able to move above the midpoint of the move down from Wednesday's FOMC inspired spike high (at 1.0824). The price is closing the week near that midpoint level. In next weeks trading, that level might be the new line. Move above = bullish. Move below = bearish. Why not? It is the midpoint.
The GBPUSD was also able to get itself off the bottom in trading today. Yesterday, it was not looking so hot from a technical perspective at least. The price was below the 100 hour MA. It fell back into an downward channel after breaking above it on the Fed decision. But in the Asian and London morning session, a minor correction neutralized the market a bit, and when the price moved back above the 100 hour MA in the early NY trading hours, the pair was off and away. The 200 hour MA at 1.4854 currently, was broken and held on a correction. Like the EURUSD, the pair is closing near the 50% of the move down from the FOMC high. That level will be important next week.
What to look forward to next week:
Monday: Draghi testifies on monetary policy. Does he stop the rally. HSBC Mfg Index
Tuesday: German Flash Manufacturing PMI, CPI in UK and US, NZD Trade Balance
Wednesday: US Durables. February data
Thursday: UK Retail Sales, BOC Poloz speaks
Friday: Vice Chair Fischer speaks. US Final GDP 4Q
Have a great weekend.
