Forex news for March 16, 2015
Economic news and events
- March 2015 US Empire State manufacturing index 6.90 vs 8.00 exp
- OPEC lowers global oil forecast to 29.19mbpd vs 29.21mbpd
- Canadian international securities transactions Jan CAD +5.73bln vs -2.0bln exp
- February 2015 US industrial production 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m
- March 2015 US NAHB housing market index 53 vs 56 exp
- ECB purchased €9.751bn in first week of QE
- EU's Junker to pony up €2.3bn to Greece
- ECB Draghi: Indicators suggest sustained recovery taking hold
- US Net Long Term TIC Flows -27.2B vs 39.2B
- EU's Junker says he's seeking a fair deal for Britain in EU
- Swiss government monitoring negative rate effect
Trading Commentary
- The strongest and weakest currencies for March 16, 2015
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD quietly moves higher
- Forex technical analysis: EURUSD trades near days highs as NY traders get in the mix
- EURUSD up through 1.0600 dragging the crosses with it
- Technical analysis: Gold trades near days lows
- Forex technical analysis: USDCAD having an up and down time of it
- US Stocks end the day higher. Gold is up marginally. Oil is down. US bond yields are lower.
- European stocks rocking right into the close - Dax is roaring
- Oil looking heavy as it breaks 43.00
The EURUSD bucked the recent trend for the pair and continued a rally - started in the far east session - in the NY session. That move higher took the price back above the 1.0560 level which was the swing low going back to April 2003. That level should give the bullish or bearish bias for the pair in the new trading day, as the clock ticks closer to the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Although there is scope for shorts to cover, the upside should be limited. The US 1Q slowdown seems to be weather related. Continued employment gains should keep the greenback supported while the EU may need more help from a weaker EUR. The 1st week of QE showed 9.75Bln of bond purchases. If 60Bln is expected by the end of the month, they are already falling behind. The euro was strongest against the CHF. That pair recovered all the losses from Friday's tumble. The SNB does meet on Thursday and this may keep the CHF soft.
The GBPUSD was another pair that saw buying interest. The 1.4800 level was broken in the NY session and will be eyed as support in the new trading day. Staying above, could see a run toward the 100 hour MA and trend line resistance which come in near the 1.4895 area (and moving lower by about 2 pips per hour) The price of the GBPUSD has not traded above the 100 hour MA since February 26th. The EURGBP rallied in early NY trading but ran into sellers near the 200 hour MA at the 0.7156 area (resistance into the new day). On the downside, watch the 0.7100 level (100 hour MA) for support.
The RBA will release the minutes from the last interest rate decision in the new trading day. They kept rates unchanged at that meeting. The market will be looking for clues for a cut at the next meeting as a result of worsening of the terms of trade, and slowing economy/higher unemployment. Last week, the net shorts from the commitment of traders report, showed an increase to 76,851 contracts from 61,545. This was the highest short position on record. Typically, that might be a precursor to a short covering rally, but lately the market has been right.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce no change in policy after the conclusion of their meeting. Comments from Kuroda will be monitored. I would expect that dips will be shallow in the pair as the a weaker yen is needed to boost inflation and keep the export economy going.
Good fortune with your trading.
