Forex News for March 13, 2015
- February 2015 US PPI final demand -0.5% vs +0.3% exp m/m
- Canadian net employment change Feb -1k vs -5k exp
- Dollar drops as input prices point to lower inflation
- February 2015 Canadian existing home sales +1.0% vs -3.1% prior m/m
- February 2015 Canadian existing home sales +1.0% vs -3.1% prior m/m
- March 2015 US Michigan consumer sentiment flash 91.2 vs 95.5 exp
- Michigan survey director says drop was caused by the low income group
- Michigan's Curtin says the US consumer is still hesitant to take on debt
- ECB's Liikanen says bond buying is going spiffingly well
- Now everyone has the hump as the risk switch gets flicked
- Greece is not looking outside the European family says Varoufakis
- Varoufakis says government is ready to suspend election promises to build trust
- S&P keeps Greece on B-/B rating, remains creditwatch negative
- Baker Hughes rig count 1125 vs 1192 prior
- Gold sets the 100 hour MA as resistance
- Forex technical analysis: EURUSD needs to break below 1.0556-60 to get things going
- Forex technical analysis: GPBUSD tumbles below the next target area
- The strongest and weakest currencies for the week ending March 13, 2015
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD sheds 850 pips in 12 days
- Hows the hedge doing, Honeywell?
- Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD stalls where it should stall
- Crude oil tumbles and ends the week near lows as dollar surges/inventories rise
The US session saw US PPI come in weaker than expectations (-0.5% v s +0.3% estimate). The rising dollar lowered the cost of imports and lower oil prices also continue to have an impact. The University of Michigan Sentiment index was not much better as it fell to 91.2 from 95.4 last month. The estimate was for a rise to 95.4. Current conditions fell to 103.0 from 106.9. Expectations saw a fall to 83.7 from 88.0. The 1 and 5-10 year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% (from 2.8%) and 2.8% (from 2.7%).
Did the dollar get hit? Only briefly as the overall dollar bullishness - especially versus the GBP and the EUR - continued to dominate.
The GBPUSD was the largest mover in trading today as it moved to the lowest level since June 2010. In the process, the pair fell below the lows from 2013 at the 1.4811 and 1.4830 levels. The pair has a 850 pip trading range over the last 12 trading days. That is the largest range since May 21, 2010. The market may be oversold, but trends are fast, directional and tend to trade in larger trading ranges than expected.
The EURUSD fell - and closed below - the 1.0500 level for the 1st time since March 21, 2003. The low extended to 1.0461 before a late day rally took to the price back up to 1.0493. Traders will be eying the 1.0500 level in early trading next week for bias clues.
In Canada, the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% while the net change in employment showed a -1K decline. The data was largely as expected. However, oil price tumbled to the lowest level since January and this helped push the USDCAD higher.
The USDJPY ended the day little changed - unaffected by the lower oil prices or falling stocks in the US (S&P down -0.61%)
Gold tested and held the 100 hour MA (currently at $1159). It was the 2nd day in a row, the intermediate MA capped the topside. Although the downside has been limited as well (the low for the week came in at 1147.44 on Wednesday), the bears remain in control below the 100 hour MA level.
For whatever reason the commitment of traders report is not to be found. I will look for it over the weekend and post the results when available.
Have a good weekend to all.
