Forex headlines for March 14, 2014:
Russia/Ukraine
- Lavrov says Russia has no plans to intervene in Eastern Ukraine
- Lavrov: Russia and US remain at odds on Ukraine
- Crimea Premier says region may formally join Russia next week
- Senior Russian diplomat says US-backed draft UN resolution on referendum in Crimea is unacceptable
- Russia may have moved bond holdings away from Fed
- Kerry: Russia faces consequences if it doesn’t change course
- Kerry: US will not recognize results of Crimea referendum
- Russian holds “training” exercises over the Mediterranean from aircraft carriers near Cyprus
Other news
- March US Michigan consumer sentiment index flash 79.9 vs 82.0 exp
- US core PPI final Feb m/m -0.2% vs +0.1% exp
- Fed’s Fisher says 2013 economic data show recovery “proceeding steadily”
- Fed earned $90.4 billion last year
- BOE’s Bean says growth may be stronger than official data
- Gold up $14 to $1382
- WTI crude up 78-cents to $98.98
- S&P 500 up 5 points to 1841, down 2% on the week
- JPY leads, GBP lags and was worst weekly performer
The market was hanging on Ukraine headlines and waiting for the press conferences from Kerry and Lavrov. In the end, Lavrov’s comment about not intervening in Eastern Ukraine was the headline with the most impact. It sent stocks into positive territory for a time and USD/JPY from 101.20 to 101.50. Both moves ultimately faded with few traders willing to hold risk trades into the weekend.
US economic data was also on the soft side and that hurt sentiment. The euro kicked up to1.3940 shortly around the time of the release. I suspect flows into euros were a larger factor than the data but ultimately there were no answers.
Gold touched a 5-month high at $1388 the slipped on Lavrov’s soothing comments. Still, there was a late bid because the Ukraine referendum is on Sunday and the US has promised action afterwards. I doubt US retaliation will amount to much but they can’t let Russia have a completely free pass so there will be jitters when the market re-opens.
Cable is finishing the day at the highs with the last trade at 1.6649 despite the soft trade balance numbers earlier in the day. Jobs data is due next week.
Aside from the developments in the Ukraine, there isn’t any news scheduled for the weekend, so have a good one!