Brainard in New York
- We don't have much more work to get to neutral rates
- Wants to move cautiously on further rate hikes
- Assessing rate path in light of recent soft inflation
- Global economy is experiencing synchronous growth
- Pace, timing and approach of balance sheet runoff by major central banks could have FX spillovers but forex may be more sensitive to interest rates than balance sheet
- It's 'appropriate soon' to start running off balance sheet
In my mind, a clear plan is shaping up that will see the Fed start the runoff -- slowly -- in September with tentative plans to hike in December if everything goes well.
