Here is a longer-term view from the good people at CitiFX technical analysis … EUR/USD monthly chart:
- EURUSD posted a bearish outside month in July which was the second in three months (the first was at the trend high in May)
- Monthly momentum has crossed down from stretched levels like it did in 2011 and 2009. On both prior occasions, we trended down to the 200 month moving average which currently comes in just below 1.22
- While we believe the market will test that level, it is probably too aggressive for this year. Instead a move down to 1.2750 (2013 lows) by year end seems more likely/sensible
What are your thoughts? Yay or Nay?