Don’t forget that today is a big day in Germany with the Bundesfassungsgericht handing down its ruling on the constitutionality of German contributions to various bail-out mechanisms.
The EUR remains in danger of sharp falls and with the USD showing some resurgence, I think we are in a sell-rally phase for EUR/USD.
I’d suggest selling intraday rallies back towards 1.4070
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The RBNZ is expected to hold its OCR at 2.25% at today's Monetary Policy Statement but deliver a hawkish forecast update, with the terminal rate seen rising to around 3.2% as Iran war energy costs threaten to push inflation above 4%.
Oil falls in early Asian trade on hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though options data shows unusually low investor conviction and a 37% implied chance of oil above $100 in three months.
UNCONFIRMED - Al Jazeera says a deal is done, signing to come
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7883 – Reuters estimate
Ueda's framing of the current Middle East conflict as a fifth oil shock carries direct policy implications for the BOJ's rate path. Acceleration in wages, or further yen weakness tightens BOJ's room to remain accommodative.
Japan April Services PPI (Corporate Services Price Index) 3% y/y (f'cast 3.3%, prior 3.1%)
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