If memory serves I posted up a preview of the ECB meeting already
Ah yes, here it is, thoughts from Barclays and UBS
Overall expectations are for not very much at all out of this summer time meeting, but for a few different perspectives (bolding mine) …
Nomura:
- Policy announcements at June's ECB meeting were surprising more in timing than in content. The ECB made some important changes to guidance on its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and rates. With these announcements, a long period of inaction is likely; however, some uncertainty remains as to what the ECB actually meant by "through the summer" in the context of leaving rates on hold. A recent article citing "policymakers speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity" suggested that the wording was sufficiently vague for some to argue it is consistent with no move until the 24 October 2019 meeting, while others believe it could be as soon as 25 July 2019.
- We continue to forecast the first 15bp hike in the deposit rate in September 2019, followed by a further 10bp hike in all policy rates in Q4 2019.
BNP Paribas:
- Although the overall tone of data has perked up since its June meeting, we do not expect the ECB to sound much different on 26 July.
- Increased confidence in inflation is somewhat offset by mounting concern about the implications of the trade war, suggesting caution at the ECB.
- We think Mario Draghi will probably dodge any questions on the timing of the next rate move, referring journalists to his statement from 14 June.
- A Fed-style operation twist, while possible, would be difficult to implement. In any case, we believe it would be unlikely to be announced at this stage.
