EUR/USD up almost 100 pips today
Here is one theory:
The Eurozone economy is out of the deflationary-crisis mode. Draghi drove down government borrowing costs and the economy is beginning to turn the corner. In addition, yesterday he signaled that policy is shifting towards neutral.
Here is another theory:
Eurozone political risks are as high as ever. There is an election on Wednesday on the Netherlands that will almost certainly end in gridlock. That will be followed by a vote in France at the end of April where one of the leading candidates wants to quit the euro.
On top of that, sight deposit data shows recent SNB intervention. FX holdings at the central bank were up 3.8% in February, the biggest rise since December 2014.
A third theory:
The SNB is preparing to do more, in the form of cutting rates deeper and the insiders are getting their money out of franc.
The market is laser-focused on the Fed decision on March 15, but about 14 hours later, the SNB decision could steal the show.