Since the SNB announced it would intervene to weaken the franc in late June of this year, the cross has not been below the 1.5070/75 level. With today’s announcement from outgoing SNB president Roth that the policy will have to be reversed soon to preserve medium-term price stability, a run at the downside to test the SNB’s resolve makes perfect sense. The cross has fallen back below the 1.5100 level this afternoon.
Perhaps it makes sense to place a stop well below the range lows between 1.5070 and 75 in case the SNB pulls the plug on supporting the cross, say around 1.5040. We could see a quick return to pre-SNB levels around 1.4600. Put a stop above 1.5100. A decent risk/return, no?