Most people seem to be talking about tonight’s German vote as a potentially EUR-negative event but it seems to me that there is also the possibility for a big EUR rally tonight. The short-term leveraged market seems to be short, EUR/CHF is being supported by the SNB, and EUR/AUD has turned bullish again.
If Frau Merkel gets an overwhelming majority tonight then we could see a major relief rally in EUR/USD, perhaps even back towards 1.38/1.39? So unless you’re really committed to either cause, square up and take a long weekend, at least that’s what I’m doing.
