Elections now underway in the Netherlands 15 March
Against an ugly back drop of violence amongst the Turkish immigrants and anti-Islamic sentiment from the Freedom Party comes the keenly awaited Dutch elections that have arrived somewhat under the wire.
I noted the riots in Rotterdam at the weekend here where I also highlighted today's event and the situation remains unclear.
The Liberal-led Dutch govt under Mark Rutte faces a real, albeit reportedly declining, challenge from the populist anti-Islam Freedom Party of Geert Wilders but the gap between the two front-runners and other parties is narrowing. We should not rule out some wobbles in the euro if the results make a strong populist mark on the landscape following the U.K.'s Brexit vote and Trump making it to the White House.
Rutte has said the election is an opportunity for voters to "beat the wrong sort of populism". while Wilders has pledged to take the Netherlands out of the EU, close all mosques and ban the Koran.His Freedom Party had been leading in opinion polls but they have since suggested his support may be slipping as I had previously highlighted at the week-end.
Other polls suggest the riots have strengthened the anti-immigration vote though and the other parties (a remarkable 28 parties in total) could also do well, leaving Dutch politics somewhat fragmented .Today's result is likely in any case to be followed by lengthy coalition negotiations.
The 150 parliamentary seats are allocated in exact proportion to a party's vote share and no major party wants to be in a coalition with Mr Wilders, so it would appear he has little chance of entering government however well he performs.
That may not be the main outcome though with attention turning to France next month and Germany in the Autumn. A rise in the populist vote today will certainly encourage those of similar mind around Europe and that for me is key to how this might impact the euro.
One swallow doesn't make a summer, and neither does one election cause a collapse of a whole system, but that's not to say we won't see some euro fallout.
I remain a dip buyer of EURUSD and EURGBP though unless this populist vote really does gather some momentum as the elections play out. So far though it's more hype and bluster rather than fact and the less pleasant aspects of populism have already been seen in UK and US which may just curb some interest.
Exit polls will give us a clue later ( around 20.00 GMT) but the final result is not due until 21 March.
Wilders and Rutte going head to head but it's not that clear cut in the Dutch elections