Downside risk for US GDP data due Friday is upside risk for stocks

A very quick look ahead at the data due from the US on Friday - Q2 GDP. This via BNZ:

Firstly, the Thursday data:

• Durable goods orders data in the US were stronger than expected
• including a lift for the core measure

But, for today's data to come:

• While this was pleasing to see, advanced estimates on trade and inventories suggested that these components will act as a bigger-than expected drag on Q2 GDP
• placing downside risk to the consensus annualised 1.8% estimate - already on track for the weakest quarterly growth in over two years

The market has become just a little bit wobbly on expectations for a Fed rate cut next week:

• The market is acting like the Fed will mirror the ECB

A disappointing GDP result should bring some smiles back to stock market faces though if it boosts the perceived chances of the FOMC cutting rates.

I know, I am using this meme wrong …