Interview on CNBC
In an interview on CNBC, Doubleline's Jeffrey Gundlach said that he expects the US to have a recession during the Trump administration.
He also said:
- He expects the US stock market to have a negative year
- The Dow Theory (Dow and Transports move below lows for the year) would be a signal for a more bearish stock market. That would happen if the Transports goes below 10136 and the Dow takes out the February low. That would happen if rates in 10 year go above 3%.
- Says the 3.22% is the important level in the 30 year. We stopped right at that level on th way higher
- A move below the 2.63% in the 10 year would be good for stocks.
- He is net short equities
- Sees Bitcoin as a leading indicator for stocks.
Gundlach tends to pat himself on the back and he is fairly good from a macro perspective, but his timing can be off. For example, he said he was hurting on his short in stocks in December and January, but has been proven right.
Well, if short going into December, the market is just getting back to those levels now. So indeed he did suffer a lot of pain (and lost opportunity). Anyway, I find him interesting to listen too.
