There are big numbers tomorrow, Thursday and Friday. Non-manufacturing ISM are set for release Wednesday, which comprises about 85% of the US economy. Thursday we get ADP and claims data (plus the ECB!) . Friday it is the US employment report.
Summer doldrums may lie ahead, but not this week.
The best case scenario for the market s that we get all indicators headed in one direction. Strong US data and a signal that the ECB may be done easing for a while after a hike this week would lift the dollar. Weak US data and a signal that more hikes are to come from the ECB should hurt the buck. Any other combination makes things tougher to read, especially if the US data is mixed and so is the ECB’s message.
My general view of dollar weakness, EUR strength for the ext few weeks remains intact, but could change if US employment picks up…Better-than-expected payrolls (especially if sustained in the next few months) would allow the Fed to start pondering the exits quicker than the market expects.