Is there reason enough to believe that the worst of the coronavirus outbreak is behind us?
The earlier headlines hinted at more positive developments in the coronavirus saga but how much does it really help in allowing the market to move on from this issue?
Scientific breakthroughs and effective treatments are no doubt the first few steps that need to be achieved but from there, this does not mean that the virus outbreak will be eliminated overnight just like that.
The UK report was a bit exaggerated by the headline and at the time, I pointed it out to be a bit misleading as there is still a lack of funding for clinical trials and there's no conclusive evidence for how effective it may be on humans - needs to be tested on animals first.
Meanwhile, I've been searching for more information about the Chinese report but all I can find is that outlets are suggesting that there are tests which indicate two drugs that are effective in curbing the coronavirus disease.
As mentioned earlier, I still reserve some skepticism over this whole thing. Here's my rant from the post:
As for the virus headlines, I'm still reserving some skepticism. Not in terms of a scientific breakthrough to cure the virus, but in terms of how this can all be transmitted effectively to control the virus and prevent a mass outbreak.
The fact is that unless there is some near-term breakthrough that can prevent China from stopping their lockdown and also alleviate growing fears surrounding global trade and travel, there is still reason for the risk rally to potentially falter.
An outright cure/effective treating method helps with that, but how is the ease of access going to work here? Does every medical center have the ability to treat this as easily as it treats the common cold? Are we ready to accept the potential for the new coronavirus to be a "common" disease among humanity?
On that last line, I think that is what the market has to be careful about. Just because a cure is found, doesn't necessarily mean that the coronavirus saga is over. Far from it, in fact.
As long as the outbreak still threatens to be a real pandemic, I don't doubt that the authorities will relax any of their recent precautionary measures any time soon.
I don't think it makes much sense to allow this virus to become another variation of the common cold. After all, it does appear to be more contagious and spreads quite rapidly.
Anyway, the longer the lockdown in China continues, the longer the toll it is going to take on global trade and the global economy as well.
For some context, the Global Times is reporting that only 13% of all restaurants in Shanghai are currently operating (granted it is still the business period break). But it is basically a ghost town over there. Can you imagine what it is like in Wuhan?
I don't know. My thoughts may be a bit of a storm in teacup but I really think that the market is being too cavalier about how the shutdown in China is gradually taking a toll on the global economy. Sure, a 1-2 week shutdown may be manageable. But what happens if this carries on for a few more weeks or months?
