Deutsche Bank on US China restrictions story - positive for yen, gold, CHF

This gave the market a little wobble on Friday: US considering limits on US portfolio flows into China)

Goldman Sachs had thoughts on it (posted earlier), yen positives:

Deutsche Bank expand a little:

  • policy risks reciprocity from China
  • China is a much bigger player in U.S. portfolio markets, than the U.S. is in China
  • headlines like this also suggest that U.S.-China relations remain extremely tense
  • not a great sign on the state of the trade negotiations
  • These headlines help assets that do well in `risk-off' like gold, Swissie and yen.
  • The euro likely also benefits in part as China could in theory search for alternative liquid markets
  • "One important caveat to above is we need to see if these are just loose headlines with U.S. capital flows used as a bargaining chip, or whether the threat is real."

Meanwhile, Asia FX is subdued at the new week's opening.

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