The story so far (the most recent episodes) is the trade deal was imminent ...
- then it suddenly was not imminent at all
- then it broke down and the US jacked tariffs up on Friday
- the US President Trump upped the game further warning China not to delay expecting him to lose the presidency in the 2020 election
- then China jacked up tariffs on US goods
The response has been ongoing, the latest is a trashing of stocks overnight, a slide in risk currencies, a gain for the yen.
And yet, in the face of all this, hope persists:
I posted yesterday on the FT with their hope:
A Wall Street Journal reporter also has hope:
- Higher Chinese tariffs won't go into effect until June 1. Ditto with higher US tariffs (which won't hit goods in transit now even though the levies took effect Friday). Shows both sides are giving each other some time to negotiate/renegotiate.
June 1 is about 2 weeks away. It'll all get sorted in 2 weeks? So far, the four letter word has brought nothing but pain to those embracing it. An alternative is 'the trend is your friend'. You decide which one you'd prefer.
ps. China's state media no longer describe the dispute with the US as a "trade conflict". Its now called a "Trade War". Still got hope?
