Jumping to the bottom line fro Credit Suisse on the implications of Tuesday's voting:
The risk of further stress has risen.
- The Spelman amendment which rules out no deal Brexit passed (by 8 votes), but it is not legally binding and provides no clear path for the government to avoid a no deal Brexit.
- On the other hand the Cooper/Boles amendment which gave the Parliament a legally binding path to ask for an extension and rule out no deal failed (by 23 votes). The loss of the Cooper amendment means that no deal is not off the table yet, which means markets have to price for a higher risk of no deal Brexit. MPs can still rule out no deal in subsequent votes (like the statement on 14 Feb), which they are likely to but only after more uncertainty and stress.
(bolding mine … bottom bottom bottom line is come back on Feb 14 …. and another can kick?)
