Westpac updated forecasts a week and a half ago, projecting a recession for the country
- -0.6% in H1 for GDP
- +2.2% in a H2 bounce
- central assumption that the COVID-19 threat would peak in the June quarter
- peak in the unemployment rate at around 5.8%- 6%
Since then the government has released its economic package, and of course developments around the outbreak have worsened. New forecasts:
- Package not sufficiently stimulative to avert a recession in 2020
- Growth through 2020 is now estimated at 1.5%
- -1% in the first half
- +2.5% in the second half
- unemployment rate is now forecast to reach 7% by October 2020
Bolding is mine, and ominously, further from WPAC:
- Please note that these forecasts are not based on Australia following a European style full lock down. Not surprisingly, the forecasts are subject to downward revision in the event of such an occurrence.
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YOU can shift the numbers around a little bit to get forecasts for pretty much everywhere on the planet IMO. Although Australia did enter this crisis with a weakening economy.
