Plenty on the economic calendar in the US on Wednesday:
- The second estimate of Q4 GDP
- Chicago PMI
- Pending home sales
(and in case you are wondering .... yes, bucketload is a technical term)
For the GDP:
Barclays:
- We expect Q4 GDP to be revised lower in the second estimate, to 2.4% q/q saar, from the advance estimate of 2.6%.
- Data received since the release of the advance estimate show downward revisions to some of the indicators that feed into the BEA's calculations of GDP. In particular, retail sales and construction spending data were revised lower for Q4, suggesting lower household and government spending relative to what was reported in the advance estimate.
Chicago PMI & home sales:
Nomura:
- Based on relevant components of the Empire State and Philly Fed business surveys, we expect the Chicago PMI to fall slightly by 0.7pp to 65.0 in February.
- This forecast would be consistent with continued expansion in business activity, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in January. The Philly Fed and Empire State surveys' headline business conditions indices rose modestly in the month pointing to continued optimism among businesses.
- Pending home sales rose decently by 0.5% m-o-m in December following a 0.3% increase in November. Pending home sales, which track contract signings on previously-owned home for sale, suggest modest boost to existing home sales in coming months. However, low inventories of home for sale continue to pose downside risks to sales.
