Chinese thinking on the President is changing
China is famous for playing the long game and one way they could do it is helping Trump win the November election.
On the face of it, that's preposterous because Trump has launched a trade war against China and challenged them at every turn.
However, officials in Beijing are coming around to a different conclusion. They now believe that both Democrats and Republicans will target China so nothing will change in a re-election. With Trump they believe the US will fracture its own alliances and isolate itself. With Biden, they fear the formation of a US-led alliance to target China.
Bloomberg is out with a report, citing nine current and former Chinese officials who note the shift in sentiment.
"If Biden is elected, I think this could be more dangerous for China, because he will work with allies to target China, whereas Trump is destroying US alliances," a former trade negotiator said.
I have been making this point for years.
More practically, if this is the Chinese strategy they are more likely to try to fulfill the Phase 1 trade deal. The latest data shows China has ramped up purchases of US agricultural goods and that's good news in the short term.
