Trade data from China, for March.
- There is no firmly scheduled time for this.
Yuan terms
- China trade balance: expected CNY 158.5bn
- Exports y/y: expected -12.8%
- Imports y/y: expected -7.0%
USD terms
- China trade balance: expected $20.0bn
- Exports: expected -13.9%
- Imports: expected -9.8%
Via ASB, what to expect:
- We forecast China's exports to grow by 1% in March following a slump of 17.2% in January and February.
- The notable recovery in the March new export orders PMI suggests Chinese exporters had a large backlog to fill. Korean March trade with China also suggests a meaningful recovery in China trade. However, the external demand shock emerged from mid-March and weighed on Chinese exports.
- We expect imports to fall by 7%yoy because of a slow recovery and falling commodity prices.
- Overall, we estimate the trade balance rebounded to US$46bn.
