Posted earlier on the Chinese PMIs due tomorrow:
and:
Bank previews now via …
Via Scotia:
- China purchasing managers' indices … readings are for February and should largely be set aside given the typical issues with January-February readings that can be distorted by the shifting timing of the annual Lunar New Year holiday.
- Recall, however, that the larger nonmanufacturing sector of the economy has been insulating against some of the downside risk to manufacturing
Citi:
- Feb's Mfg PMI could be noisy because of the CNY effect, but we expect it to remain below 50. Power plants' coal consumption recovered steadily after the CNY, while steel mills' blast furnace operating rate inched up 1ppt from Jan. Besides the seasonality, industrial production should be largely stable. New orders, especially new export orders, should still see a weakening bias
TD on manufacturing PMI:
- PMI edged higher last month to 49.5, but remained in contraction territory. We expect a further stabilisation, albeit at a weak level. Government stimulus measures taken together with hopes of a trade deal will likely help but pressure remains as global growth weakens. Forward looking components of the Jan PMI such as backlog of orders and new orders point to more contraction.
