CPI and PPI data coming up from China today, due at 0130GMT - previews below
China inflation data for July
- CPI expected 1.5%, prior 1.5%
- PPI expected 5.6%, prior 5.5%
HSBC:
- We expect CPI inflation to have remained subdued in July, at 1.5% y-o-y, unchanged from June.
- Food prices likely continued to contract, but at a slower pace, while core inflation likely remained sticky.
- A small upward adjustment to oil prices by the NDRC and rising output prices in the latest PMI reading, however, could pose some upside risks to our headline forecast.
- Meanwhile, a sharper increase in input prices in the latest PMI indicates that producer prices could have expanded at a slightly faster pace in y-o-y terms.
- We expect PPI to rise to 5.6% y-o-y in July compared with 5.5% y-o-y in June.
Barclays:
- We expect CPI inflation to remain subdued at 1.5% on continued food deflation, and PPI inflation to edge higher to 5.8% given the strong rebound in PMI input prices.
TD Securities:
- We are mixed compared with consensus. We already know pork price deceleration troughed in May, and other food price inflation remains buoyant, so we are a little higher than mkt for CPI.
- We see slight PPI downside as it stubbornly refused to slide along with oil prices in recent months. Oil has since rebounded, one to watch for the August print.
