There is plenty of data to come from China on Friday 18 October 2019, due at 0200 GMT:
Q3 GDP
For the q/q
expected is +1.5%
prior was +1.6%
For the y/y
expected is +6.1%
prior was +6.2%
Also, September activity data:
Industrial Production y/y expected is 4.9%, prior was 4.4%
industrial production YTD y/y expected is 5.5%, prior was 5.6%
Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected is 5.5%, prior was 5.5%
Retail Sales y/y, expected is 7.8%, prior was 7.5%
Retail Sales YTD y/y, expected is 8.1%, prior was 8.2%
Earlier post:
Via Reuters now, another look at what to expect:
- GDP expected to post its weakest in at least 27-1/2 years
- raising pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus
- Downbeat data in recent months has highlighted weaker demand at home and abroad
- most analysts believe the scope for aggressive stimulus is limited in an economy already saddled with piles of debt
- "The economy still faces big downward pressure," said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank in Shanghai. "We should respond to pressure on the economy but also ensure the macro leverage ratio does not rise. So policy measures will be carried out with a focused and orderly way"
As for market impact , much deviation for the median expected would be a very big surprise indeed. The data has come in bang inline or no more than 0.1% different to the median forecast every single quarter since Q2 of 2015.
If its a beat it'll be a China-proxy (eg. AUD) positive input. And vice versa for a miss. The thing about a miss though is that if we get one of those then the "more stimulus is coming: chorus begins.
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ps. the China government growth target is 6-6.5% this year
