A quickie from Société Générale, via eFX
Societe Generale FX Strategy looked at SNB policy options as the market gradually adjusts to the idea of policy tightening by the ECB.
In particular, SocGen expects the SNB to lag the ECB substantially in taking steps towards policy normalization.
Such an outcome, according to SocGen, would argue for a gradually higher spot path for EUR/CHF over the next few quarters.
In the near-term though, SocGen argues that until the start of ECB policy normalization, the risks for the EUR/CHF still 'decidedly' to the downside in light of the persistent appreciation pressures on CHF from the positive Swiss external balance.
